In its latest cereals market situation report, the European Commission estimated that the bloc’s grain production could fall to 255.8mt for the 2024/25 season, compared to its previous projections of 256.9mt. This is largely driven by a decrease in soft wheat production estimates, which fell from 112.3mt from November projections to 111.9mt for the period mentioned above. This is due to a reduction in the harvest area to 20.2m hectares from 20.3m hectares. Similarly, corn production estimates were revised down slightly to 59.5mt from its previous projections of 59.6mt, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
US weekly net export sales show strong demand for US grains
“Meanwhile, in its weekly report, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s corn planting estimates to 65.8% complete for the 2024/25 season, up from 55.6% estimated earlier. Sufficient rain has been helpful for the planting season so far. Meanwhile, the exchange reported that the corn planting area remained unchanged at 6.3m ha for the above-mentioned period. Similarly, soybean planting estimates were raised to 76.6% for the 2024/25 season from its previous estimates of 64.7%. The exchange further added that the forecast for more showers could continue to improve the country’s wheat crop condition as well.”
“US weekly net export sales for the week ending 12 December show strong demand for US grains over the week. US corn shipments surged to 1,177kt, higher than the 946.9kt a week ago and 1,014kt for the same period last year. This was also higher than the average market expectations of 1,013kt. Similarly, wheat shipments rose to 458kt, higher than the 290.2kt reported in the previous week and 326kt a year ago. The market was expecting a number closer to 329kt. Meanwhile, soybean shipments stood at 1,424.2kt, higher than the 1,173.8kt reported a week ago but lower than the 2,133.4kt reported a year ago. The average market expectations stood at 1,256kt.”
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