Ming Jong Tey
Independent Analyst
The market has shown some intriguing trends around election years, and 2024 is no different. Let’s dive into the key patterns from recent elections and what they might mean for 2025.
Key election-year patterns
Historically, election years lead to increased volatility and a spike in demand one week before voting day. Similar patterns were observed in 2016 and 2020, both of which saw significant market reactions. In 2024, we’re seeing a similar bullish bar, indicating potential strength in the market.
Watch the video below for a detailed analysis in the S&P 500.
Historical context
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2016: Market rallied with a strong demand tail, closing at a high.
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2020: A bullish bar emerged, though not as strong as 2016.
Bullish signals for 2025
With an upward push in the S&P 500, supported by aggressive demand, the market may continue to rise. Analysts suggest holding long-term positions as the bullish structure remains intact.
Stocks to watch
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Affirm (AFRM)
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Upstart (UPST)
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Roblox (RBLX)
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Sea (SE)
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Small-cap stocks (e.g., Russell 2000)
Short-term caution
Despite bullish signs, there is an exhaustion in demand. Some consolidation or a pullback is natural, especially for overbought assets.
Considerations
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Watch for pullbacks before re-entering.
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Avoid chasing high prices in crypto stocks like Coinbase and Bitcoin ETFs.
As we approach 2025, keeping an eye on these trends can help you make informed investment decisions.
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