EIA lowers forecast for global oil demand and US oil production – Commerzbank

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for global oil demand downwards, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Oversupply fears push oil price outlook lower

"It now expects an increase of only 900 thousand barrels per day this year and 1 million barrels per day next year. Previously, the expected increase was 1.2 million barrels per day in each case. According to the EIA, the weaker demand and the stronger production increase by OPEC+ are likely to lead to a greater oversupply on the oil market in the second half of the year."

"As a result, the EIA also significantly lowered its assumptions for oil prices. In response, the EIA also reduced its forecast for US crude oil production. This is only expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 and to virtually stagnate next year."