DXY to head below 100 – DBS

The DXY Index depreciated 0.4% to 100.47, its weakest closing level for the year, DBS FX analyst Philip Wee notes.

More Fed cuts to 4.5% by the end of this year

“The futures market is not ruling out another 50 bps cut at the FOMC meeting in November after the US Conference Board’s weak consumer report. The headline consumer confidence index declined to 98.7 in September from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August; consensus had expected a slight improvement to 104 from the previously estimated 103.3.

“Despite the overall index nearing the bottom of its two-year range, the present situation index fell to its lowest level since March 2021. Conducted before the last FOMC meeting on September 18, consumers turned negative on current business conditions and were less complacent about the labour market.”

“The weak consumer confidence report validates the Fed’s decision to deliver a larger 50 bps rate cut to 5% to avert a further cooling in the labour market. We maintain the view for the DXY to head below 100 based on our expectations for more Fed cuts to 4.5% by the end of this year and 3% by the end of 2025.”