DXY: Remains vulnerable ahead of core PCE on Friday – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) slipped overnight on somewhat less hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric, Rates Strategist Frances Cheung and FX Strategist Christopher Wong from OCBC note.

USD waits for PCE for direction

“Mary Daly warned that US labour market is near a point, where further slowing in job vacancy could mean higher unemployment. Goolsbee said that it may be appropriate to start thinking about whether policy is putting too much pressure on the economy.”

“This week, the focus is on PCE core (Fri). Softer core CPI, PPI readings in May is building expectations for core PCE to print softer. A weaker than expected print should raise hopes for Fed rate cut. This should also tamper USD gains, but hotter print may continue to fuel USD momentum.”

“The Dollar Index (DXY) was last at 105.31. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI fell. Some pullback not ruled out. Support at 105.20 (50 DMA), 104.80/90 (61.8% fibo retracement of Oct high to 2024 low, 21 DMA) and 104 (50% fibo). Resistance at 105.75 (76.4% fibo).”