DXY: Mixed ahead of Fed rate meeting – OCBC

US Dollar (USD) traded mixed this morning ahead of the much anticipated FOMC meeting this Thu (3am SGT). A 25bp cut is more or less a done deal (markets pricing ~93% probability of a cut) but the focus is on the refreshed dot plot, which will provide guidance on Fed members’ expectation on rate cut trajectory into 2025 - 26. The previous dot plot back in Sep guided for 4 cuts and markets are now pricing in about 3 cuts. DXY was last at 106.81 levels.

DXY above the ‘head’ can nullify the H&S pattern

“Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Head and shoulders (H&S) pattern remains intact with DXY trading near second shoulder. A rise in DXY back above the ‘head’ would nullify the H&S pattern.”

“But at point of writing, DXY is respecting the second shoulder. We watch price action. A play-out of the H&S pattern requires a decisive break below neckline support. Next support at 106.20/50 levels (23.6% fibo, 21 DMA), 105 levels (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to Nov high, 50 DMA). Resistance at 107.20 (both shoulders), 108 (2024 high).”

“This week brings empire manufacturing, prelim PMIs (Mon); retail sales, IP (Tue); housing starts, building permits (Wed); FOMC, GDP, existing home sales (Thu); core PCE, personal spending, income, Kansas City Fed manufacturing index (Fri).”