EMFX surfs in a sea of green. Today's US jobs data will be key in determining whether this week's risk-positive trend has further room to run, economists at ING report.
Dollar to hand back a little further of its gains assuming no upside NFP surprises
It seems investors are starting to think that the Fed is done with rate hikes and are now starting to reduce underweight positions in risk assets, including emerging market currencies. This is Dollar negative.
Today's US jobs data will be a key determinant of whether this week's new trend has legs or will be quashed by strong hiring or wage numbers.
Assuming no upside surprises today, we favour the Dollar handing back a little further of its gains, especially against the high yielders (e.g., Mexico and Hungary) given the renewed interest in the carry trade.
DXY could drop to the 105.50/105.55 area today as long as the US jobs data is not too strong.
See – NFP Preview: Forecasts from nine major banks, employment remains fairly healthy
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