Dow Jones Industrial Average holds on-balance on Monday

• The Dow Jones huddled close to 42,000 to kick off the new week.
• Investors are awaiting key US labor data due on Friday.
• Despite quiet Monday, the Dow Jones is coming off a winning month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was hamstrung at the start of a fresh trading week. The major equity index eased slightly on Monday, but stuck close to the 42,000 level. Stock traders are eyeing data risks and rate markets are grappling with the odds of a follow-up cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. The DJIA initially dipped through Monday's market action before recovering its balance and ending the first session of the week close to where it started, near 42,300.

Market focus will be slowly swinging around toward Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report as investors look for further data on the state of the US economy. Rate traders continue to muse over November’s Fed rate call, with odds tipped slightly in favor of a meager 25 bps cut. However, many market participants are still hoping for a follow-up double cut for 50 bps when the Fed gathers again for another rate call on November 7.

A looming port strike along the East and Gulf Coasts is hampering investor expectations for economic activity in the near term, crimping investor demand and cooling stock advances. Adding to downside pressure in equities, Fed officials drew a line in the sand on Fed rate cuts, noting that it would take a further deterioration of the US labor market to spur further large moves from the Fed. This proposition weighs poorly on otherwise rate-cut-hungry market participants, as further declines in jobs data would signal greater risk of an impending US recession.

Markets leaned a bit heavier into bets of a quarter-point rate cut in November after Fed Chair Jerome Powell made an appearance, cautioning that heavier action from the Fed would only come if economic data deteriorates further. The Fed head leaned into the Fed's own expectations of two more quarter-point cuts through the rest of the year, hobbling hopes for another jumbo rate cut to follow the one the Fed already made in September.

Dow Jones news

The Dow Jones is broadly weaker on Monday, with over two-thirds of the stock index testing into the red early in the new trading week. However, firm gains for major components are helping to constrain broader losses in the DJIA.

Boeing (BA) is getting weighed down by its own ongoing strike, which has now gone on for two weeks. The aerospace company shed 2.45% on Monday, slipping below $125.50 per share. On the high side, Apple (AAPL) rose 1.6% to over $231 per share despite the company announcing it was walking away from a capital-raising round for a planned investment into OpenAI. Apple’s pullback from an investment into a major AI project has raised some eyebrows, flashing warning signs that OpenAI’s recent pivot into seeking profitability may have some roadblocks on the way ahead.

Dow Jones price forecast

Despite a tepid Monday, the Dow Jones is set to chalk in a stellar September performance. The major equity index hit a record new high last week of 42,636, and added over 1.5% over the month. The Dow Jones is on pace to close for a fifth consecutive month in the green, climbing over 13.5% bottom-to-top from April’s lows near 37,550.

Dow Jones daily chart