- The Dow Jones tapped a new all-time high bid just shy of 44,800 on Monday.
- Equity markets are pivoting broadly bullish after Trump signals his Treasury pick.
- Market rumors are swirling that Middle East peace talks could find a resolution soon.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lurched into the high side on Monday, kicking the new trading week off with a fresh record high just a hair below the 44,800 handle. Investors bid up stock prices on rumors that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon may have a ceasefire deal on the table. Closer to home, investors turned further bullish after pending president-elect Donald Trump tapped Scott Bessent as his future Treasury secretary when he returns to the White House in January.
Investors hit the gas pedal on news that former President Donald Trump will pick Scott Bessent as his Treasury secretary. Scott Bessent is the founder of Key Square Group and a former partner at Soros Fund Management, making Bessent an odd choice for an incoming president who has routinely courted corners of the voting public laden with anti-Soros conspiracy theories.Investors hit the gas pedal on news that former President Donald Trump will pick Scott Bessent as his Treasury secretary. Scott Bessent is the founder of Key Square Group and a former partner at Soros Fund Management, making Bessent an odd choice for an incoming president who has routinely courted corners of the voting public laden with anti-Soros conspiracy theories.
Despite equity markets rallying hard on the prospect of incoming President Donald Trump tapping a hedge fund manager for a federal oversight position, a notably bullish appointment for the equity field in general, former President Donald Trump’s track record of making dubious staff picks remains unchallenged: the Key Square Group’s fund performance has a notably volatile history. According to reporting from Reuters, institutional investors have fled Key Square Group in recent years, with the macro-focused hedge fund peaking over $5 billion in AUM in late 2017 and tumbling to a 2024 low of barely over $500 million. Despite Key Square Group opening its doors with seed funding from Soros Capital, Soros has reportedly withdrawn all funding from Bennet’s fund and now has no exposure to the investment vehicle.
Although US officials dampening expectations and noting that a ceasefire deal hasn't been officially reached, markets are still optimistic that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East might stabilize later this week. According to an X (née Twitter) post from an AXIOS reporter, A US-proposed truce between Israel and Lebanon that would see Israeli troops withdraw from South Lebanon is set to be voted on, and presumably approved, by both sides in the coming days. Despite an overall uptick in investor sentiment on the prospect of cooling Middle East instability, Crude Oil markets took a hard hit on the news, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil backsliding nearly 3% on Monday to $69/barrel.
Dow Jones news
Despite an early-week bid pin into a new record high, the Dow Jones is settling into a more reasonable stance for Monday, still trading on the high side but easing back from a record high near 44,800. Two-thirds of the major equity index are finding gains on the day, with the remaining third stuck on the red side of the day’s opening line.
Nvidia (NVDA) missed out on Monday’s bullish push, falling another 3.3% and backsliding into $137 per share as investors continue to rebalance their sky-high expectations of the chipmaker. Despite reporting annual revenue growth figures north of 90% last week, bidders in the amorphous AI-tech rally expected more, and are balking at the prospect of Nvidia’s future revenue growth easing from 2025’s 112% forecast to a comparatively sluggish 49% in 2026.
Dow Jones price forecast
The Dow Jones’ Monday bid into a fresh record high near 44,800 has left the blue-chip index back on the high side of a near-term bull run, shrugging off a recent dip into the low well before any bearish technical indicators could form. The Dow Jones is up nearly 19% bottom-to-top in 2024, and up an eye-watering 32% since daily candlesticks last touched the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) way back in November of 2023 near the 33,800 region.
Dow Jones daily chart
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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