Dollar to weaken once the dust settles – SocGen

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Dollar is probing November 2022 highs after tenth successively weekly gain. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes Greenback’s outlook.

US to slip into recession in 2024

Shutdown and downgrade concerns, month and quarter-end, talk of the US economy growing forever and forcing the Fed to do more and inflation worries have all been cited as reasons for the latest lurch higher in US yields, but I’ll go on favouring the need to offer higher yields to attract sufficient money to finance an endless stream of Treasury auctions.

The world must reallocate more of its capital to US bonds, and higher yields do the work, which then results in a stronger Dollar as more money either stays in the US or is attracted from abroad. This will provide the conditions for the US to slip into recession in 2024 and for the Dollar to weaken once the dust settles. In the meantime, the data are robust, and the Dollar is strong.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD softens below 1.1800 on Fed hawkish remarks

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to around 1.1775 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, pressured by a renewed US Dollar demand. Traders await the US President Donald Trump's State of the Union address later on Wednesday for clarity on fiscal policies.

GBP/USD regains 1.3500 and above

GBP/USD extends its advance for the third day in a row on Tuesday, this time retesting the area beyond the 1.3500 hurdle. Cable’s uptick comes despite decent gains in the Greenback and the dovish message from the BoE’s Bailey at the UK Parliament.

Gold bounces back above $5,150 ahead Trump's State of the Union speech

Gold finds fresh demand and regains the $5,150 level following the previous day's pullback from the monthly peak as traders await Trump's State of the Union address. In the meantime, trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks seem to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion.

Hyperliquid registers mild gains following CoinShares' ETP launch

Hyperliquid registered a 3% gain on Tuesday after CoinShares announced the launch of its Physical Hyperliquid Staking exchange-traded product, offering investors exposure to the token's price and staking yields.

The Citrini report: How a debatable AI narrative can shake Wall Street

That AI-related headline alone was enough to rattle investors.US stocks slid sharply on Monday after a widely circulated Citrini Research memo outlined a hypothetical “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”, warning that rapid AI adoption could push US unemployment into double digits as early as by mid-2028.

XRP pressured by weak ETF flows and declining retail interest

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower, trading above its intraday low of $1.32 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The decline from its weekly opening of $1.39 reflects heightened volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market, accentuated by tariff-triggered uncertainty.