This skeptical assessment is primarily due to growing demand concerns after economic data from the three most important oil demand regions – the US, China and Europe – disappointed and led to an increase in risk aversion, Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
The extent of the price decline seems to be exaggerated
“As a result, the stock markets and other cyclical commodities such as base metals also came under pressure. There are growing doubts as to whether oil demand will actually increase noticeably in the second half of the year, as had previously been expected. But there were also headwinds on the supply side. The decision by OPEC+ to postpone the production increases planned for October by two months was only taken under the massive pressure of falling oil prices.”
“OPEC+'s reluctant stance rather gives the impression that the cartel members still want to increase production. The diminishing willingness to maintain the current production cuts is also fueled by the continued overproduction of individual members such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. Thus, in two months at the latest, there is a risk of a repeat, although there will no longer be any scope for an increase in production in view of the implicit market balances for 2025.”
“The prospect of an oversupply caused by OPEC+ in the coming year should prevent a significant price recovery, although we consider the extent of the price decline to be exaggerated.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays vulnerable near 1.0600 ahead of US inflation data
EUR/USD remains under pressure near 1.0600 in European trading on Wednesday. The pair faces headwinds from the US Dollar upsurge, Germany's political instability and a cautiou market mood, as traders look to US CPI data and Fedspeak for fresh directives.
GBP/USD trades with caution below 1.2750, awaits BoE Mann, US CPI
GBP/USD trades with caution below 1.2750 in the European session on Wednesday, holding its losing streak. Traders turn risk-averse and refrain from placing fresh bets on the pair ahead of BoE policymaker Mann's speech and US CPI data.
Gold price holds above $2,600 mark, bulls seem non committed ahead of US CPI
Gold price staged a modest recovery from a nearly two-month low touched on Tuesday. Elevated US bond yields and bullish USD cap gains for the non-yielding XAU/USD. Traders now look forward to the key US Consumer Price Index report a fresh impetus.
US CPI data preview: Inflation expected to rebound for first time in seven months
The US Consumer Price Index is set to rise 2.6% YoY in October, faster than September’s 2.4% increase. Annual core CPI inflation is expected to remain at 3.3% in October. The inflation data could significantly impact the market’s pricing of the Fed’s interest rate outlook and the US Dollar value.
Forex: Trump 2.0 – A high-stakes economic rollercoaster for global markets
The "Trump trade" is back in full force, shaking up global markets in the aftermath of the November 5th U.S. election. This resurgence has led to substantial shifts in both currency and bond markets, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY) jumping 2.0% + since election day.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.