Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
After gaining around 16% this year the Dax has rallied up to the highs from January 2022. However, there are increasing calls that the recent rise in stocks, particularly in the US, looks stretched. This has resulted in some calls from analysts that overblown valuations, concerns over higher rates, and portfolio rebalancing mean stocks are vulnerable to a correction.
The DAX, around key technical highs, is at a key technical spot where sellers can manage risk. The seasonals also favour DAX selling. Over the last 25 years, the Dax has actually, on average, lost 5.19%. So, will we see the DAX move lower this year? The largest fall in the DAX was actually in 2002 in this period when the DAX fell a massive 37.24%. Will we see DAX selling again this summer?
Major trade risks: The main risk would be if inflation fell away rapidly and/or some unexpected positive news boosted global stock sentiment despite the existing high valuations.
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