Crude Oil goes nowhere with markets assessing bearish outlook under Trump presidency


  • Crude Oil stands ground at the floor at $68, unable to significantly bounce higher. 
  • The monthly OPEC report was unable to move the needle in a positive sense for Oil. 
  • The US Dollar Index sees rally stall with some profit-taking at hand.

Crude Oil is struggling to keep its head above water at $68.00, with bearish calls mounting and a bounce higher looking near impossible. The support came in the form of the monthly OPEC report, in which the Petroleum Exporting conglomerate penciled in a fourth downside revision to its global oil demand outlook for 2025. Markets took it as calling out the obvious, and Crude Oil is facing selling pressure again this Wednesday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against six other currencies, is steady after having ticked higher earlier on Wednesday. The main focus is on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for October. An uptick in inflation would diminish the possibility of an interest-rate cut in December, just a day after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashakari warned markets that the December rate cut is not a given at all. 

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $68.25 and Brent Crude at $71.92

Oil news and market movers: API build up could be sign on the wall 

  • Crude inventories in the Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp region rose by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 8 to 51.7 million barrels, Genscape data show. 
  • Chinese Cnooc’s Huizhou Phase II refinery halted units on Tuesday due to fluctuating production processes, according to the city’s fire department, Bloomberg reports.
  • The Abadan Oil refinery in Iran has communicated that it has taken measures to keep Oil exports stable under President Donald Trump, Reuters reports. 
  • The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly figures for the US Crude Stockpile change. Last week, there was a surprise build of 3.132 million barrels. Numbers are expected at 21:30 GMT. 

Oil Technical Analysis: Outlook grimm

Crude Oil prices are unable to catch a break and remain facing substantial selling pressure. The fact that OPEC has revised its demand outlook for a fourth time is really not moving the needle at all for Oil prices as long as nothing fundamentally changes in terms of supply and demand. Treat brief geopolitical elements as blips on the radar as the overall trend sees Crude Oil prices sliding lower in the longer term. 

On the upside, The 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.40 is the first to be considered before the hefty technical level at $73.72, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a few pivotal lines. The 200-day SMA at $76.71 is still quite far off, although it could get tested in case tensions in the Middle East arise. 

Traders need to look much lower, towards $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – to find the first support. In case that level breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

WTI Oil FAQs

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD tumbles further and hit new YTD lows near 1.0580

EUR/USD tumbles further and hit new YTD lows near 1.0580

The Greenback now resumes its uptrend and advance to new highs. forcing EUR/USD to abandon its initial constructive stance and reach new yearly lows in the 1.0580 region on Wednesday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD accelerates its losses below 1.2700

GBP/USD accelerates its losses below 1.2700

GBP/USD breaks below the 1.2700 support on the back of the sudden resurgence of buying interest in the US Dollar following US CPI data and some hawkish remarks from the Fed's Logan.

GBP/USD News
Gold extends slide to fresh two-month low

Gold extends slide to fresh two-month low

After shedding some ground throughout the first half of the day, the US Dollar is back in fashion. XAU/USD trades at its lowest in two months in the $2,580 region and is technically poised to extend its slump.

Gold News
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Chances of pullback increase as miner selling ramps up

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Chances of pullback increase as miner selling ramps up

Bitcoin (BTC) price extends its decline for a second consecutive day on Wednesday, trading slightly down at around $87,600 after a 30% surge since November 5 pushed BTC to a new all-time high at $89,940.

Read more
Trump vs CPI

Trump vs CPI

US CPI for October was exactly in line with expectations. The headline rate of CPI rose to 2.6% YoY from 2.4% YoY in September. The core rate remained steady at 3.3%. The detail of the report shows that the shelter index rose by 0.4% on the month, which accounted for 50% of the increase in all items on a monthly basis. 

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures