Crude Oil falls after EIA release that comes in above consensus


  • Crude Oil falls after the weekly EIA release
  • Headlines risk in the Russia and Ukraine war points to further escalation ahead. 
  • The US Dollar Index recovers with traders bracing for Nvidia earnings after the US closing bell. 

Crude Oil prices are falling in red on Wednesday, after earlier getting close to the $70 round level,  as geopolitical tensions – namely the escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine – take over market sentiment to the detriment of stockpile data. 

That element became very clear after the release from the American Petroleum Institute (API) US stockpile data on Tuesday, which showed a big buildup of 4.753 million barrels. Such a big increase in inventories should weigh on Oil prices, but markets largely ignored the data due to headlines pointing to increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is edging up slightly with all eyes towards Nvidia earnings later on Wednesday. Equities are on the front foot and the US Dollar is also supported. Traders will also hear comments from four Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. 

At the time of writing, Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $69.34 and Brent Crude at $73.10

Oil news and market movers: Bigger build up

  • The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its weekly Crude stockpile change numbers. The forecast got beaten by a 0.545 million barrel print against 0.4 million barrels and the previous build of 2.089 million barrels reported last week.
  • The American Petroleum Institute (API) released its weekly Crude stockpile change numbers for the week ending November 15 on Tuesday. A firm build of 4.753 million barrels was reported, well above the forecast of 0.8 million barrels and against the drawdown of 0.777 million the previous week. 
  • Norway's Equinor said on Wednesday that it restored full output capacity at the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea following a power outage, Reuters reports. 

Oil Technical Analysis: USD weighs on Crude

Crude Oil price might be ticking up, supported by the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Still, markets seem to be taking these moves with a pinch of salt as the actual Oil market is still very much flooded with more supply than demand. So, the overall longer term outlook has not changed. 

On the upside, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.07 is the first barrier to consider before the hefty technical level at $73.04, which aligns with the 100-day SMA. The 200-day SMA at $76.52 is still quite far off, although it could be tested if tensions intensify further. 

On the other side, traders need to look towards $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – to find the first support. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023.

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

WTI Oil FAQs

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD languishes near multi-year lows below 0.6250 after dovish RBA Minutes

AUD/USD languishes near multi-year lows below 0.6250 after dovish RBA Minutes

AUD/USD remains depressed below 0.6250 early Tuesday after the December RBA Minutes reiterated that upside inflation risks had diminished, which reaffirms bets for a rate cut in early 2025. This, along with concerns about China's fragile economic recovery and US-China trade war, undermines the Aussie and weighs on the pair.

AUD/USD News
USD/JPY eases toward 157.00 after Japanese verbal intervention

USD/JPY eases toward 157.00 after Japanese verbal intervention

USD/JPY has come under renewed selling pressure, easing toward 157.00 after Japanese Finance Minister Kato's verbal intervention. The pair erased early gains, induced by the October BoJ meeting Minutes. However, the downside could be limited as the US Dollar hold the previous rebound. 

USD/JPY News
Gold remains stuck between two key barriers amid thin trading

Gold remains stuck between two key barriers amid thin trading

Gold price is attempting another run higher while defending the $2,600 threshold early Tuesday. In doing so, Gold price replicates the recovery moves seen in Monday’s trading, which eventually fizzled out on a broad US Dollar comeback in tandem with US Treasury bond yields.  

Gold News
Solana dominates Bitcoin, Ethereum in price performance and trading volume: Glassnode

Solana dominates Bitcoin, Ethereum in price performance and trading volume: Glassnode

Solana is up 6% on Monday following a Glassnode report indicating that SOL has seen more capital increase than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Despite the large gains suggesting a relatively heated market, SOL could still stretch its growth before establishing a top for the cycle.

Read more
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures