Crude oil prices forecast: WTI in free fall amid global turmoil


  • Chinese economic slowdown exacerbates the case of slowing oil demand.
  • Market players keep an eye on nuclear discussions between the US and Iran.
  • WTI trades near the August low at $86.99 and with a firmly bearish technical stance.

Crude oil prices are in free fall at the beginning of the week, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate currently trading at $86.63,  not far from this month's low at $86.40.

Several factors are weighing on oil prices, the main one being the worsening demand outlook. The data from China showed that the country's crude throughput fell to its lowest level since March 2020 at 53.21 million tonnes of crude oil in July. That number was also 8.8% lower than the same time last year. Additionally, disappointing Retail Sales and Industrial Production data from China revived concerns over a global recession.

On the supply side, Saudi Aramco's CEO said on Sunday that they would be able to raise the output to the max capacity of 12 million bpd if requested by the government. Looking ahead, Iran's response to the EU's offer to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which is expected to be announced later in the day, could impact crude oil prices. In case Iran and the US reach an agreement, that could lead to the removal of sanctions on Iran's oil and gas exports.

WTI technical outlook

The aforementioned August low is the lowest WTI traded since February, which means that a break below it could result in a steeper decline. The initial bearish target and immediate support level is the $86.10 area, where the black gold has several intraday highs and lows from January this year. A bearish breakout could result in a test of the $85.00 figure. The sour tone of equities will likely keep crude oil prices on the downside through the rest of the day.

Should Wall Street recover, WTI may also find some demand. Intraday resistance stands at $88.50 and $90.00. Nevertheless, technical readings support a near-term downward extension, adding to the negative fundamental picture. 

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price 86.67
Today Daily Change -4.69
Today Daily Change % -5.13
Today daily open 91.36
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 94.01
Daily SMA50 101.96
Daily SMA100 103.78
Daily SMA200 94.45
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 94.14
Previous Daily Low 90.64
Previous Weekly High 94.32
Previous Weekly Low 86.64
Previous Monthly High 109.54
Previous Monthly Low 88.34
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 91.97
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 92.8
Daily Pivot Point S1 89.95
Daily Pivot Point S2 88.54
Daily Pivot Point S3 86.45
Daily Pivot Point R1 93.45
Daily Pivot Point R2 95.55
Daily Pivot Point R3 96.96

 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD struggles near multi-month low; remains below 0.6500 after Aussie jobs report

AUD/USD struggles near multi-month low; remains below 0.6500 after Aussie jobs report

AUD/USD hangs near its lowest level since August 6 and remains below the 0.6500 psychological mark following the release of rather unimpressive Australian employment details. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said this Thursday that interest rates were restrictive enough and will not rise any further. 

AUD/USD News
USD/JPY stands firm near multi-month top, above mid-155.00s

USD/JPY stands firm near multi-month top, above mid-155.00s

USD/JPY holds steady near its highest level since July 24, above mid-155.00s during the Asian session on Thursday and seems poised to prolong its appreciating move. The continuation of the Trump trade lifts the USD to a fresh YTD high. 

USD/JPY News
Gold price remains vulnerable near its lowest level since September 19

Gold price remains vulnerable near its lowest level since September 19

Gold price enters a bearish consolidation following a four-day decline to a nearly two-month low amid oversold conditions on hourly charts. Any meaningful recovery, however, seems elusive amid the recent USD bullish run to a fresh YTD low, bolstered by expectations for US President-elect Donald Trump's expansionary policies and elevated US bond yields. 

Gold News
Dogecoin Price Forecast: Miners offload $240M as DOGE approaches risk zone

Dogecoin Price Forecast: Miners offload $240M as DOGE approaches risk zone

Since Donald Trump’s victory on November 5, Dogecoin has emerged as the best performing asset among the top 10 ranked cryptocurrencies. On November 12, DOGE reached a new milestone price propelled by Trump’s statement confirming Elon Musk’s involvement in the incoming administration. 

Read more
Trump vs CPI

Trump vs CPI

US CPI for October was exactly in line with expectations. The headline rate of CPI rose to 2.6% YoY from 2.4% YoY in September. The core rate remained steady at 3.3%. The detail of the report shows that the shelter index rose by 0.4% on the month, which accounted for 50% of the increase in all items on a monthly basis. 

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures