- WTI rebounded after a near-term dip towards $80.00.
- Energy markets are churning as investors look for firmer signs of supply drawdown.
- Ongoing geopolitical turmoil keeps supply concerns front and center, bolstering prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil found a firm bid on Monday, rebounding to the $81.50 region after easing within reach of the $80.00 handle. Energy markets remain choppy as investors hope for a broad-market push higher on the possibility of rising demand in the future while trying to shrug off current supplies, which see an increasing overhang on current demand.
Leadership in Israel shrugged off the latest version of a proposed ceasefire between Israeli forces and Palestinian Hamas, keeping Crude Oil markets underpinned as investors continue to bake in the possibility of the ongoing Gaza conflict spilling over into neighboring countries.
Energy investors will be looking ahead to this week’s US Crude Oil stocks updates from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration. Week-on-week counts went in different directions last week, with the API noting a drawdown while the EIA found a slight uptick in supply counts. Crude Oil speculators will be looking for a steeper draw on US Crude Oil supplies as economies head into the summer months, with barrel traders specifically looking for increased fuel demand for cooling and summer travel.
Economic Indicator
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
API’s Weekly Statistical Bulletin (WSB) has reported total U.S. and regional data relating to refinery operations and the production of the four major petroleum products: motor gasoline, kerosene jet fuel, distillate (by sulfur content), and residual fuel oil. These products represent more than 85% of total petroleum industry.
Read more.Next release: Tue Jun 25, 2024 20:30
Frequency: Weekly
Consensus: -
Previous: 2.264M
Source: American Petroleum Institute
Economic Indicator
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
The EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report is a weekly measure of the change in the number of barrels in stock of crude oil and its derivates, and it's released by the Energy Information Administration. This report tends to generate large price volatility, as oil prices impact on worldwide economies, affecting the most, commodity related currencies such as the Canadian dollar. Despite it has a limited impact among currencies, this report tends to affect the price of oil itself, and, therefore, had a more notorious impact on WTI crude futures.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jun 26, 2024 14:30
Frequency: Weekly
Consensus: -
Previous: -2.547M
WTI technical outlook
Bullish intraday momentum has left US Crude Oil stranded in a growing supply zone above the $81.00 handle, with prices growing sluggish at $81.50 and could be poised for an exhaustion pullback to familiar levels. Daily candles are pinned into near-term bull country above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.38, but a rapid rise from the last swing low into $72.45 could leave bullish momentum without a firm technical leg to stand on, and odds are leaning into a return to long-term median prices.
WTI hourly chart
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.1100 as USD struggles to rebound
EUR/USD builds on Thursday's gains and trades in positive territory near 1.1100 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to hold its ground despite the upbeat consumer sentiment data for September, allowing the pair to stretch higher.
GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.3150 on improving risk mood
GBP/USD edges higher toward the 1.3150 area in the second half of the day on Friday. The improving risk mood, as reflected by rising US stock indexes, makes it difficult for the USD to find demand and supports the pair heading into the weekend.
Gold climbs to new record-high above $2,580
Gold preserves its bullish momentum and trades near $2,580 after setting a new record-high slightly above this level. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the red below 3.7% as markets reassess the odds of a large Fed rate cut, helping XAU/USD push higher.
Crypto Today: WazirX exploiter moves nearly $12 million Ether to new address, Bitcoin, ETH post gains
Bitcoin trades above $58,000 at the time of writing, adding 2% to its value this week. Ethereum hovers around $2,300 as WazirX exchange exploiter moves 5,000 Ether to a new wallet address and a crypto mixer.
European Central Bank widely expected to cut interest rates in September
The European Central Bank is expected to cut key rates by 25 bps at the September policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s presser and updated economic forecasts will be closely scrutinized for fresh policy cues.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.