The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core PCE), will be published on Friday, September 30 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of six major banks.
The market expectation is for the monthly core PCE inflation to rise by 0.5% in August following July’s 0.1% increase. On a yearly basis, the PCE inflation and the core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, are forecast to rise to 6.6% and 4.7%, respectively.
Commerzbank
“Excluding food and energy, the deflator probably increased by 0.4% MoM. This is a bit less than the recently released core CPI rate. This is because rents have a lower weight in the deflator than in the CPI basket (15% vs. 32.6%); rents rose quite strongly in the CPI in August. In addition, medical services have a much higher weighting in the deflator, and here the government health services included in the deflator, in contrast to the CPI, have a dampening effect on prices.”
TDS
“Core PCE prices likely gained speed again in August following a strong CPI report where core inflation surprised significantly to the upside at 0.6%. The YoY pace likely bounced back to 4.8% (same as in June), suggesting prices remain sticky at an elevated level. Separately, personal spending likely advanced at a modest 0.2% MoM pace following an even weaker 0.1% gain in July.”
NBF
“The annual PCE deflator may have moderated from 6.3% to 6.0%, but core PCE deflator may have increased one tick to 4.7%.”
Deutsche Bank
“We expect core PCE to edge higher by +0.5% MoM (vs +0.1% in July) which won’t allow the Fed to take the foot off the tightening pedal.”
CIBC
“The Fed’s preferred measure of prices, core PCE prices, could have accelerated more modestly than its CPI counterpart, to 4.7% YoY, given the lower weighting of shelter in the index.”
Citibank
“We expect a solid 0.47% MoM increase in core PCE inflation in August. The YoY reading is likely to rise to 4.7%, with further increases likely over the next three months as base effects are likely to push YoY core PCE higher through November.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds gains above 1.0800 after EU inflation data
EUR/USD is holding gains above 1.0800 in the European session on Tuesday after the mixed Eurozone inflation data. The pair is driven by renewed US Dollar weakness as attention turns toward the US jobs survey and ISM PMI data amid looming Trump's reciprocal tariffs.
GBP/USD turns higher above 1.2900 ahead of US data, tariffs
GBP/USD has regained upside traction above 1.2900 in Tuesday's European trading. A fresh round of US Dollar selling lift the pair ahead of the top-tier US economic data releases and Wednesday's tariffs announcements.
Gold price hits new all-time high ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
Gold price edges higher again for a second day this week and for the first day of the second quarter of 2025. The precious metal trades slightly above $3,130 at the time of writing and the new all-time high was eked out at $3,149 this Tuesday.
PEPE could rally to double digits if it breaks above its key resistance level
Pepe memecoin approaches its descending trendline, trading around $0.000007 on Tuesday; a breakout indicates a bullish move ahead. Moreover, PEPE's long-to-short ratio supports a bullish thesis as bullish bets among the traders reach the highest over a month.
Is the US economy headed for a recession?
Leading economists say a recession is more likely than originally expected. With new tariffs set to be launched on April 2, investors and economists are growing more concerned about an economic slowdown or recession.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.