Copper slumps as tariffs threaten global growth outlook – ING

Copper and other industrial metals slumped on Thursday amid concerns about how Trump’s latest tariffs threaten the global growth outlook, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

Beijing can cap the downside for copper and other industrial metals.

"Although all base and precious metals, including Gold, were exempted from the new levies, concerns about the latest tariffs hurting demand for raw materials is weighing on the sentiment. A global trade war is bearish for copper and other industrial metals in the context of slowing global growth."

"Gold joined the sell-off on Thursday, after hitting a fresh record high earlier in the day. Profit-taking pressured prices, while the rush to ship metal to the US will calm down after the precious metal was excluded from new tariffs. However, the sell-off should be short-lived, with escalating trade actions likely to continue to bolster safe-haven buying. Trump’s unpredictable trade policy has been one of the key drivers for Gold so far in 2025."

"The impact of tariffs on China is particularly in focus for metals markets. Higher-than-expected US tariffs are likely to drag on Chinese growth and inflation this year. China has been quite measured in its reaction to the first two rounds of tariffs. But a sharp 34% tariff escalation risks a stronger response both in terms of domestic stimulus and potential retaliation. More aggressive stimulus measures from Beijing could cap the downside for copper and other industrial metal prices."