China's stimulus: The east wind is here – TDS

China is now accelerating its services rebalancing efforts. Ministry of Finance to announce a new fiscal package next week, TDS macro analysts note.

The full impact of the stimulus to anchor growth in the 5% region

“China is accelerating its services rebalancing efforts which will lift long-term economic prospects. We expect the Ministry of Finance to announce a new fiscal package next week of CNY4tn (US$569bn) with a heavy focus on the consumer, equivalent to 3.2% of GDP to complement the aggressive monetary easing.”

“We expect asset price recovery and aggressive monetary stimulus to lift GDP growth for 2024 to 4.9% (prior: 4.7%), a modest boost considering there is only 1 quarter left in 2024 and most of the fiscal funds won't be disbursed in time. For 2025, the full impact of the fiscal stimulus and greater monetary stimulus should filter through and anchor growth in the 5% region.”

“The jury is still out if the private sector buys into Chinese's leaders' narrative shift (especially the consumer), and investors will keep a watchful eye on Q4 retail sales momentum and property prices to gauge the success of the policy moves.”