Kelvin Lau, Senior Economist at Standard Chartered, notes that the China recorded non-FDI capital inflows of USD 15.6bn in February, according to their China capital flows tracker, an unexpected turnaround after outflows of more than USD 60bn for five consecutive months.
Key Quotes
“This is the first month of inflows since April 2014, before the Chinese yuan (CNY) daily fixing reform was implemented and hurt sentiment in August 2015. The finding is also consistent with the rise in FX reserves by c.USD 14bn, after our adjusting for the FX valuation change, over the same period, despite the sizeable drag from the current account.”
“The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reported a USD 8.5bn decline in FX assets in February, less than the USD 30.2bn drop in January. The February decline is modest considering the reported dip in the merchandise trade balance to a deficit of USD 9.1bn (from a surplus of USD 51.3bn prior). The services trade deficit also likely stayed wide at around USD 17.4bn, by our estimate. We therefore calculate capital inflows of USD 18.1bn, of which USD 2.5bn was net FDI inflows. Outward direct investment (ODI) fell 26% m/m after an already weak January due to more scrutiny by the authorities; FDI inflows also eased, but outpaced ODI in absolute terms for a third straight month.”
“We believe it is too early to claim that capital outflow pressure is over. A more stable USD has been key in easing the need for CNY intervention YTD, but the authorities have also taken substantial measures to swim against the tide by (1) increasing control and scrutiny of capital outflows, (2) stepping up measures to attract capital inflows, and (3) implementing higher onshore interest rates. Such policy efforts are unlikely to reverse soon given their proven effectiveness, but also given the persistent risk of increased US-China trade friction and renewed USD strength.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD traders seem non-committed around 0.6500 amid mixed cues
AUD/USD extends its consolidative price move just above 0.6500 on Friday. The RBA's hawkish and upbeat market mood supports the Aussie, though mixed Australian PMI prints fail to inspire bulls. Moreover, bets for a slower Fed rate-cut path continue to fuel the post-US election USD rally and cap the currency pair.
USD/JPY slides to 154.00 as higher Japanese CPI fuels BoJ rate-hike bets
USD/JPY languishes near 154.00 following the release of a slightly higher-than-expected Japan CPI print, which keeps the door open for more rate hikes by the BoJ. That said, the risk-on mood, along with elevated US bond yields, could act as a headwind for the lower-yielding JPY and limit losses for the pair amid a bullish USD, bolstered by expectations for a less dovish Fed and concerns that Trump's policies could reignite inflation.
Gold price advances to near two-week top on geopolitical risks
Gold price touched nearly a two-week high during the Asian session as the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict benefited traditional safe-haven assets. The weekly uptrend seems unaffected by bets for less aggressive Fed policy easing, sustained USD buying and the prevalent risk-on environment
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH open interest surge to all-time high after recent price rally
Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $3,350, experiencing an 10% increase on Thursday. This price surge is attributed to strong bullish sentiment among derivatives traders, driving its open interest above $20 billion for the first time.
A new horizon: The economic outlook in a new leadership and policy era
The economic aftershocks of the COVID pandemic, which have dominated the economic landscape over the past few years, are steadily dissipating. These pandemic-induced economic effects are set to be largely supplanted by economic policy changes that are on the horizon in the United States.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.