CEE: ECB as a downside risk for the region – ING

The region switched to muted mode with a quiet calendar in the second half of the week, ING’s FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.

CEE trading will depend heavily on the ECB's tone

“The market seems to be waiting for the ECB decision and even the lower EUR/USD didn't change much on the CEE currencies yesterday. The Czech National Bank blackout period starts today and potentially we may still see some headlines. However, in the last few days, the board has been very active but overall the message is clear.”

“A December pause in the cutting cycle will be on the table and from the tone of the interviews we would say that is the primary scenario for most of the board. A pause in December and February is the baseline of our economists. Board members mention the February forecast as a possibility for additional rate cuts if January inflation is kept in check. While December seems like a done deal, February is open depending on the numbers in the meantime.”

“Today's CEE trading will depend heavily on the ECB's tone. Given the strong levels and rally in PLN and CZK over the past two weeks, we see risk on the downside coming from the possible dovish tone of the ECB. Both currencies have been showing resistance to further strength for the last three days and any signs of weakness on the European side in the ECB comments could lead to profit-taking in our view.”