Thursday seems to be the highlight of the week. On top of global events today, we also have a Central Bank of Turkey meeting and important speakers in Hungary, ING’s FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.
Market expectations of a first cut shift to December/January
“First thing this morning there is a local conference in Budapest where the finance minister, who according to newspaper rumours is expected to become the next central bank governor, the minister for economy and the deputy governor of the National Bank of Hungary are all expected to speak. With EUR/HUF levels above 400, we believe the speakers will have more attention than usual and we are likely to hear hawkish news from central bankers that could help the HUF get back on track.”
“Later today we will see the Central Bank of Turkey decision. In line with expectations, we expect the rate to remain unchanged at 50%. September inflation numbers surprised to the upside and the market is expecting an additional dose of hawkishness. Market expectations of a first cut are shifting from October/November to December/January, which is showing up in the forward pricing.”
“However, the spot TRY market remains on the same trajectory, which is the main reason we prefer spot over forwards at the moment, collecting high carry. Thus, reassurance from the Central Bank of Turkey should only extend the window where TRY remains the currency of choice for markets, while TURKGBs rather remain on the sidelines, waiting for the first CBT rate cut.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
How will Euro react to European Central Bank policy decisions? – LIVE
The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to lower key rates again in October amid growing signs of a worsening economic outlook and continuous disinflation. The Euro's valuation could be impacted by the ECB's language and President Lagarde's remarks.
GBP/USD retakes 1.3000 ahead of US Retail Sales data
GBP/USD is grinding higher to retest 1.3000 in the European session on Thursday. The pair benefits from a recovery in risk sentiment and a pause in the US Dollar advance. All eyes now remain on the US Retail Sales data for fresh trading directives.
Gold rises toward $2,700, sets new record-high
Gold price prolongs its one-week-old uptrend for the third straight day and trades at a new record-high above $2,680. Investors await the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and September Retail Sales data releases from the US.
Bitcoin: Recent rally fuels “Uptober” hopes
Bitcoin demand appears to be picking up, according to a CryptoQuant report. BTC’s performance since the fourth halving closely resembles that of the third halving, when prices increased sharply.
Another unconvincing policy briefing fails to inspire confidence
Chinese authorities are playing the long game, trying to keep investors focused on the bigger picture, multiple stimulus measures spread out over time, with a bit of subtle bid support from state-backed institutions.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.