Canadian Jobs Preview: Forecasts from four major banks, a trend reversal would not be surprising

Canada’s employment data for February will be reported by Statistics Canada on Friday, March 10 at 13:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers at four major banks regarding the upcoming jobs figures. 

The North American economy is estimated to have created 15K in February as against the whopping 150K in January, with the unemployment rate seen rising a tick to 5.1%.

TDS

“We look for employment to fall by 10K after rising +150K last month, pushing the UE rate to 5.1% but note this will do little to cool an overheated labour market. We are also looking for wage growth to firm to 5.2% YoY.”

NBF

“We expect employment to have fallen 25K in the second month of 2023. Such a decline would translate into a one-tick increase in the unemployment rate to 5.1%, assuming the participation rate remained steady at 65.7% and the working-age population grew at a strong pace.” 

CIBC

“We suspect that employment will only inch up by 5K in February and that the unemployment rate will tick up to 5.1%. Wage growth will look stronger this month, thanks to a weaker comparison from a year ago as low-wage hospitality workers were rehired following the short-lasting shutdown measures in January 2022.”

CitiBank

“February employment should rise a strong 40K, partly on stronger immigration in 2022 continues into 2023. We also expect a pick-up in wage growth and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.9%.”