- Canadian Dollar markets are shuttered for a federal holiday.
- US markets are also quiet, further crimping volume flow from the Greenback side.
- Canadian CPI inflation figures due this week, as well as FOMC Meeting Minutes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) was flat on Monday, driven into the middle by a complete lack of market volume. Canadian and US money markets are dark for matching federal holidays, and trading volumes have dried up at the start of the new trading week.
Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures will be the key print for Loonie traders this week. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest rate call will also be dropping this week.
Daily digest market movers: Double-header market holidays dry out USD/CAD flows
- The Canadian Dollar remains overwhelmingly unchanged on Monday.
- Most of Canada’s money markets are dark for synchronized provincial holidays, and US markets are shuttered to celebrate President’s Day.
- Canadian CPI inflation is due on Tuesday. Canada’s annualized CPI print is expected to hold steady at 1.8% YoY, though a slight uptick in January’s MoM figure is expected.
- The Fed’s latest Meeting Minutes will be published on Wednesday.
- Key US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) business activity survey results are due later this week.
Canadian Dollar price forecast
After catching its fourth straight daily gain against the Greenback last week, the Canadian Dollar has lost all momentum on Monday. Overall bullish momentum remains limited, and USD/CAD has waffled further back below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.4280. A firm technical floor is still priced in at the 200-day EMA just south of 1.4000.
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
GBP/USD drops toward 1.2950 after BoE policy decisions
GBP/USD stays under bearish pressure and declines to the 1.2850 area on Thursday. The broad-based US Dollar strength and the Bank of England's cautious tone on the economic outlook after maintaining the bank rate at 4.5% weigh on the pair.
EUR/USD falls to weekly-low below 1.0850 on renewed USD strength
EUR/USD extends its daily slide and trades deep in negative territory below 1.0850 in the American session on Thursday. The risk-averse market atmosphere and the Fed's conservative approach to policy easing support the US Dollar and drag the pair lower.
Gold corrects lower but holds above $3,030
Gold corrects lower after setting a new record-high above $3,050 early Thursday but manages to stabilize above $3,030. Retreating US Treasury bond yields and the negative shift seen in risk mood help XAU/USD hold its ground despite the renewed USD strength.
Bitcoin hovers above $85,500 as Trump calls the Fed to lower interest rates
Bitcoin price edges lower around $85,500 on Thursday after gaining nearly 5% the previous day. US President Trump called on the Fed to lower interest rates as tariffs start to hurt the economy.
Tariff wars are stories that usually end badly
In a 1933 article on national self-sufficiency1, British economist John Maynard Keynes advised “those who seek to disembarrass a country from its entanglements” to be “very slow and wary” and illustrated his point with the following image: “It should not be a matter of tearing up roots but of slowly training a plant to grow in a different direction”.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.