- The Canadian Dollar rose nearly half of a percent against the Greenback.
- Canada is almost entirely absent from the economic calendar this week.
- Thin data and low holiday volumes bode poorly overall for CAD bulls.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) caught a thin bid on Monday, rising a little over four-tenths of one percent against the Greenback as tepid markets round out the 2024 trading season. Investors are caught in a volatility trap ahead of the midweek market closure, with most of the global market space remaining off for the week.
Canadian economic data remains limited this week, and Loonie markets will be kicking off 2025 with a whimper with the only datapoint of note being Thursday’s Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures. US markets will follow up with ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers on Friday.
Daily digest market movers: Markets hunker down amid holiday trading doldrums
- The CAD rebounded 0.4% against the USD to start the new trading week, but meaningful momentum remains limited.
- The Loonie is still trading close to multi-year lows against the Greenback.
- Canadian and US markets will be shuttered for New Year’s Day on Wednesday.
- Canadian and US PMI figures are due after the midweek shutdown.
- Both survey result indexes are expected to tick lower as business expectations cool heading into the post-holiday slowdown.
Canadian Dollar price forecast
The Canadian Dollar is adrift near multi-year lows against the US Dollar, bolstering the USD/CAD pair into the 1.4400 chart region. Despite this, the key technical level appears to be holding, but a clear lack of bullish momentum underpinning the Loonie is keeping the pair well-bid.
A medium-term bull run in the US Dollar saw USD/CAD close higher for all but two of the last 12 straight trading weeks, lifting the Greenback 7.8% higher against the Loonie bottom-to-top. The immediate target for CAD bidders will be to force the pair back below the 1.4300 handle.
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends slide below 1.0300, touches new two-year low
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level since November 2022, below 1.0300 on Thursday. The US Dollar benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere and the upbeat Jobless Claims data, causing the pair to stretch lower.
GBP/USD slumps to multi-month lows below 1.2400 on broad USD strength
Following an earlier recovery attempt, GBP/USD reversed its direction and declined to its weakest level in nearly eight months below 1.2400. The renewed US Dollar (USD) strength on worsening risk mood weighs on the pair as trading conditions normalize after the New Year break.
Gold benefits from risk aversion, climbs above $2,650
Gold gathers recovery momentum and trades at a two-week-high above $2,650 in the American session on Thursday. The precious metal benefits from the sour market mood and the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields.
These 5 altcoins are rallying ahead of $16 billion FTX creditor payout
FTX begins creditor payouts on January 3, in agreement with BitGo and Kraken, per an official announcement. Bonk, Fantom, Jupiter, Raydium and Solana are rallying on Thursday, before FTX repayment begins.
Three Fundamentals: Year-end flows, Jobless Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI stand out Premium
Money managers may adjust their portfolios ahead of the year-end. Weekly US Jobless Claims serve as the first meaningful release in 2025. The ISM Manufacturing PMI provides an initial indication ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.