The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a little softer on the session so far but losses are holding near yesterday’s low in the upper 1.37s, Scotiabank’s FX Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Short-term technical position of USD/CAD looks bullish
“Before Canadian markets can think about packing it in early and heading off for the Thanksgiving weekend, there is the September employment report and the Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook survey to work through. Q3 growth is sluggish relative to expectations but markets are looking for a 27.5k rise in jobs last month. Wage growth remains sticky but the unemployment rate is expected to nudge up a tenth to 6.7%.
“The BOS will shed light on expected sales trends well as inflation expectations. Jobs data will be the driver for spot and risks here are somewhat asymmetric in terms of the likely market reaction—disappointing data will bolster expectations that the BoC will ease policy more aggressively while on expectations or better data may only temper those bets marginally, if at all. “
“It’s hard to say anything but bullish about the short-term technical position of USD/CAD. The strong run higher in the USD since the start of the month is stretching to eight consecutive sessions now and is bordering on excessive but there are no signs of vulnerability in price action and the bull trend remains firm. Support is 1.3745/50 and 1.3715. Resistance is 1.3800 and 1.3850.”
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