|

CAD: Canada goes to the polls – ING

Canada holds a general election today; here is our market guide to the vote, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Markets expect limited CAD impact from liberal majority

"The Liberals, led by PM Mark Carney, are ahead in the polls, with the Conservatives trailing by around 3.5 points. The betting market attaches over 80% probability of a Liberal win, and 60% of Liberals securing a parliament majority."

"We assume a majority Liberal government is the market's baseline expected outcome, and would have a limited impact on the Canadian dollar. A hung government should trigger some pressure on the loonie, which could instead rally on a surprise Conservative win, as markets may see a smoother path for trade negotiations with the US."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD ticks lower following the release of FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar found some near-term demand following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, with the EUR/USD pair currently piercing the 1.1750 threshold. The document showed officials are still willing to trim interest rates. Meanwhile, thinned holiday trading keeps major pairs confined to familiar levels.

GBP/USD remains sub- 1.3500, remains in the red

The GBP/USD lost traction early in the American session, maintaining the sour tone and trading around 1.3460 following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Trading conditions remain thin ahead of the New Year holiday, limiting the pair's volatility.

Gold stable above $4,350 as the year comes to an end

Gold price got to recover some modest ground on Tuesday, holding on to intraday gains and changing hands at $4,360 a troy ounce in the American afternoon. The bright metal showed no reaction to the release of the FOMC December meeting minutes.

Ethereum: ETH holds above $2,900 despite rising selling activity

Ethereum (ETH) held the $2,900 level despite seeing increased selling pressure over the past week. The Exchange Netflow metric showed deposits outweighed withdrawals by about 400K ETH. The high value suggests rising selling activity amid the holiday season.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).