Brent Oil unlikely to rise above $120 – Natixis

The Oil price is already high. Economists at Natixis analyze the maximum price Brent could reach.

How high could Oil prices go?

If the conflict in the Middle East were to spread and last, either as a result of a retaliatory movement triggered by Middle Eastern Oil producing countries against Western countries or as a result of a more severe embargo imposed by the Americans on Iranian oil production, it is possible that the Oil price will rise above its current level (around $90 for Brent). 

But there is an upper limit to the Oil price, which is the price level that would trigger additional exploration and production of US shale Oil and Canadian Oil shale. 

In view of the past reaction of these Oil producers to Oil price rises, the maximum price that Oil could reach before triggering a major production surge in North America is probably around $120 (Brent).