The price of oil is in focus in for the start of this week with additional turmoil in the markets following the weekend updates surrounding the coronavirus, at the core of geopolitical and market havoc. WTI dropped to a low of $32.80.
Firstly, crude prices went into a tailspin on the news of the OPEC+ abolishing oil production restrictions. This follows Friday's updates and lack of consensus between Russie and Saudi Arabia proposing a cut to crude output. In what appears to be a retaliation aimed at Russia fr breaking the alliance, the Saudis are hatching plans to increase its oil output in April to 12 million barrels a day – a record amount – if need be. More on this here.
Coronavirus update
Meanwhile, the latest on the coronavirus – 109,836 cases globally with 3,805 deaths and 60,963 recovered. There are 86% of current cases in mild condition and 14% critical. There are 94% recovered/discharged and 6% deaths from 64,768 cases that are now closed.
Source: China's NHC and www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
Risk-off supporting EUR/USD
EUR/USD is picking up a bid at the start of the week and will b a key focus with the Europan Central Bank on the cards. The rally has moved to a critical liquidity pool on the daily charts:
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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