Brazil’s stock market to underperform most of the rest of the Latin America region – CE


The MSCI Brazil Index has declined by ~5% since the start of the year in local currency terms, compared with a ~5% increase in the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the same period. 

Economists at Capital Economics had expected Brazil’s stock market to be among the best performers in the world this year, but with the virus still running rampant and populist policymaking on the rise, they now think its underperformance will continue for some time.

Key quotes

“The continued spread of the coronavirus in Brazil has pushed back the economic recovery. The economic damage already wrought by the virus has meant that domestically focused sectors of the stock market have struggled over the past year. And with the virus still spreading rapidly in Brazil, this looks likely to persist longer than we had previously thought, delaying any positive effects from economic reopening.”

“The risks from domestic policy have increased. We suspect the recent intervention at Petrobras may be a symptom of this. And even if further policy interventions are not quite so drastic, we suspect that the trend towards greater state intervention has probably reduced the chances of further economic liberalisation and reform, which would weigh on future growth.”

“We still think the stock market can gain from here, though. The vaccination programme is proceeding, albeit at a slower pace than many had hoped, and we still expect it to usher in an economic recovery eventually, which should support the domestically focused sectors of the market. These factors will still outweigh any negative effects from the decline in commodity prices we forecast.”

“We forecast the MSCI Brazil Index to increase by ~7% from its current level in local currency terms, which would imply it finishes the year only slightly higher than its end-2020 level and underperforms our forecasts for most other MSCI emerging markets indices. Nonetheless, as the economy does eventually recover, we still expect the MSCI Brazil Index to increase at the somewhat faster pace of 15% in 2022, more in line with our forecasts for other emerging markets.”

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data

Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar

Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.

GBP/USD News
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700

Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.

Gold News
Geopolitics back on the radar

Geopolitics back on the radar

Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.

Read more
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more

The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures