|

BoE: Expected downside risks for the growth and inflation outlook points to weaker GBP – Commerzbank

25 bp or 50 bp – how much will the Bank of England (BoE) hike its key rate by? Economists at Commerzbank analyze GBP outlook ahead of the decision.

How hawkish is the BoE?

Market expectations and analysts’ consensus tend towards the ‘small’ rate step of 25 bps. A minority considers a further 50 bps rate hike to still be justified and might therefore react with disappointment to a smaller rate step, trading Sterling weaker.

What is decisive for the medium-term GBP outlook is the question of what will happen after today’s decision. This is likely to be influenced by the new projections. Due to the expected downside risks for the growth and inflation outlook these are likely to support our expectation of a cautious BoE monetary policy, pointing towards lower rate expectations and a weaker Sterling. 

If the BoE was to surprise with a 50 bps rate hike today it would be considerably more hawkish than we expect and we would probably have to re-examine our view of the BoE and the future development of GBP exchange rates.

See – BoE Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, 25 bps or 50 bps? That is the question

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD clings to small gains near 1.1750

Following a short-lasting correction in the early European session, EUR/USD regains its traction and clings to moderate gains at around 1.1750 on Monday. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low, with investors awaiting this weeks key data releases from the US and the ECB policy announcements.

GBP/USD edges higher toward 1.3400 ahead of US data and BoE

GBP/USD reverses its direction and advances toward 1.3400 following a drop to the 1.3350 area earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to gather recovery momentum as markets await Tuesday's Nonfarm Payrolls data, while the Pound Sterling holds steady ahead of the BoE policy announcements later in the week.

Gold pulls away from session high, holds above $4,300

Gold loses its bullish momentum and retreats below $4,350 after testing this level earlier on Monday. XAU/USD, however, stays in positive territory as the US Dollar remains on the back foot on growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy outlook next year.

Solana consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout. On the institutional side, demand for spot Solana Exchange-Traded Funds remained firm, pushing total assets under management to nearly $1 billion since launch. 

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Solana Price Forecast: SOL consolidates as spot ETF inflows near $1 billion signal institutional dip-buying

Solana (SOL) price hovers above $131 at the time of writing on Monday, nearing the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, awaiting a decisive breakout.