• Unanimous decision reflects changed stance since September; further rate cuts may follow as inflation outlook improves.
  • Banxico emphasizes continuing economic challenges but sees potential for easing as non-core inflation effects diminish.
  • Inflation expected to reach target by Q4 2025, with updated projections suggesting a gradual disinflationary trend.

The Bank of Mexico cut rates by 25 basis points for the fourth time since March 21, diminishing Mexico’s primary reference rate from 10.50% to 10.25%. It’s worth noting that the decision was unanimous after Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath voted to hold rates unchanged at the September meeting.

Bank of Mexico reduces key rate to 10.25%, citing improving inflation outlook and downside economic risks

In its monetary policy statement, Banxico acknowledged that the balance of risks to economic activity growth is skewed to the downside. They added, “the nature of the shocks that have affected the non-core component and the projection that their effects on headline inflation will dissipate over the next quarters.”

The board added the inflationary scenario “will allow further reference rates adjustments,” and although it requires a restrictive monetary policy stance, the evolution of the disinflation process “implies that it's adequate to reduce the level of monetary policy restriction.”

Banxico updated their forecasts for 2024, 2025 and 2025. The board projects that headline inflation will converge to the bank’s 3% target in Q4 2025.

USD/MXN Reaction to Banxico’s decision

The USD/MXN spiked toward 20.55, before printing new daily lows below 20.45. Despite this, the exotic pair bias is tilted to the upside, unless sellers push the exchange rate below 20.00, ahead of testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.74. On the upside, buyers had a clear path to test year-to-date (YTD) highs at 20.80, if they reclaim 20.50.

Banxico FAQs

The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.

The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.

Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Further declines remain well in store

EUR/USD: Further declines remain well in store

EUR/USD broke below the key 1.0500 support to clock a new 2024 low, always on the back of the intense strength in the Greenback, which sent the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fresh yearly peaks past 107.00 ahead of key US data releases on Friday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD reclaims the 1.2700 barrier and above

GBP/USD reclaims the 1.2700 barrier and above

In line with the rest of its risk-related peers, GBP/USD leaves behind the initial drop to multi-month lows near 1.2630 and attempts a move beyond 1.2700 the figure amidst renewed weakness in the Greenback.

GBP/USD News
Gold trims early losses hovers around $2,575

Gold trims early losses hovers around $2,575

The loss of momentum in the US Dollar and the retracement in US yields across the curve allow Gold prices to pick up some upside traction and revisit the $2,570 zone per ounce troy, trimming part of their early losses.

Gold News
Dogecoin Price Prediction: Could DOGE turn deflationary after 100% rise? Elon Musk weighs in

Dogecoin Price Prediction: Could DOGE turn deflationary after 100% rise? Elon Musk weighs in

Dogecoin (DOGE) is down 4% on Thursday after key figures, including Elon Musk, shared views on its token design and what a deflationary path could mean for its appeal as a currency.

Read more
Trump vs CPI

Trump vs CPI

US CPI for October was exactly in line with expectations. The headline rate of CPI rose to 2.6% YoY from 2.4% YoY in September. The core rate remained steady at 3.3%. The detail of the report shows that the shelter index rose by 0.4% on the month, which accounted for 50% of the increase in all items on a monthly basis. 

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures