Australian Dollar soft due to trade war fears between China and the US
- AUD/USD declined by 0.93% to 0.6453 on Monday.
- The Aussie remains pressured by US-China trade war concerns and USD strength.
- Strong US data has also helped the USD over the session.
The AUD/USD pair opened the week on a negative note, declining by 0.93% to 0.6455 in Monday's session, snapping a three-day winning streak. This shift in sentiment can be attributed to the fundamental outlook deteriorating in the market due to geopolitical tension and economic uncertainties weighing on investor confidence.
US President-elect Donald Trump’s threats against countries interested in using the BRICS currency by imposing tariffs has raised fears of a trade war between the US and China and turned the market mood sour. On the data front, US ISM PMI data has also fueled the USD’s rise.
Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar weakens against USD, markets digest US data
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 in November from 46.5 in October, signaling a softer contraction in the manufacturing sector.
- The Employment Index rose to 48.1 from 44.4, indicating a slight improvement in hiring activity.
- The Prices Paid Index declined to 50.3 from 54.8, reflecting a moderation in input cost pressures.
AUD/USD technical outlook: Upside remains limited below the 20-day SMA
The AUD/USD pair snapped a three-day winning streak on Thursday, getting rejected by the 20-day SMA. Although the pair has recovered some ground, as long as it doesn't conquer this level, the upside will be limited. The RSI indicator is still below the neutral 50, while the MACD is also negative, both suggesting that bearish pressure is still intact.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
Author
Patricio Martín
FXStreet
Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.
