- AUD/USD trades near the 0.6270 region, failing to recover ground amid persistent USD strength.
- A soft Australian labor market report and safe-haven demand for the US Dollar continue to weigh on the Aussie.
- Technical indicators point to further downside as the pair remains below key moving averages.
The AUD/USD pair remained depressed during the American session below the 0.6300 barrier as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and disappointing employment data from Australia continued to weigh. Technical signals have turned increasingly bearish, as indicators deteriorate and price action breaks below important moving averages.
Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar softens as US Dollar stays firm post-Fed
- The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended losses for a second session on Friday, pressured by both external and domestic drivers.
- The release of a disappointing Australian jobs report, which showed the economy shed 52.8K positions in February, well below expectations for a 30K increase, sparked fresh concerns about labor market weakness.
- The US Dollar built on its mid-week rebound, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates elevated for longer, following higher inflation projections in the latest Summary of Economic Projections.
- Although the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged, the updated tone leaned more hawkish, providing a lift to the Greenback.
- Geopolitical tensions and persistent uncertainty over US trade policy also added to safe-haven flows, benefitting the US Dollar.
- Comments from US President Donald Trump about potential new tariffs and retaliatory trade measures have kept investors cautious, a factor that particularly affects risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie, given Australia’s heavy trade exposure to China.
- From a domestic monetary policy perspective, the weak employment data increases the likelihood of further easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA had already cut rates by 25 basis points in February, and analysts now speculate up to 75 basis points of additional easing could be warranted if economic data continues to disappoint.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Negative momentum deepens with key levels breached
The AUD/USD pair continued to move lower during Friday’s American session, hovering near the 0.6270 support zone, with bearish pressure dominating the day. The pair remains firmly below the 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages, confirming a deteriorating technical structure.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator printed a new red bar, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped sharply to 44, staying within negative territory. Both signals point to momentum continuing to favor the downside.
In terms of key levels, immediate support is seen around 0.6250, and a break below could trigger a further decline toward 0.6200. On the upside, resistance lies near 0.6310, followed by a more significant barrier at 0.6340, where the pair might face selling pressure.\
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains offered and challenges 1.0800
The intense recovery in the US Dollar keeps the price action in the risk complex depressed, forcing EUR/USD to recede further and put the key support at 1.0800 to the test on Friday.
GBP/USD breaks below 1.2900 on stronger Dollar
Persistent buying pressure on the Greenback has pushed GBP/USD to multi-day lows below the 1.2900 level, as investors continue to digest the recent interest rate decisions from both the Fed and the BoE.
Gold meets support around the $3,000 mark
The combined impact of a stronger US Dollar, continued profit taking, and the effects of Quadruple Witching weighed on Gold, pulling its troy ounce price down to around the pivotal $3,000 level on Friday.
US SEC Crypto Task Force to host the first-ever roundtable on crypto asset regulation
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Crypto Task Force will host a series of roundtables to discuss key areas of interest in regulating crypto assets. The “Spring Sprint Toward Crypto Clarity” series’ first-ever roundtable begins on Friday.
Week ahead – Flash PMIs, US and UK inflation eyed as tariff war rumbles on
US PCE inflation up next, but will consumption data matter more? UK budget and CPI in focus after hawkish BoE decision. Euro turns to flash PMIs for bounce as rally runs out of steam. Inflation numbers out of Tokyo and Australia also on the agenda.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.