- Rising commodity prices are benefiting the Aussie.
- Weak Australia Q2 capex survey weighs on AUD and may limit its gains.
- Technicals suggest further AUD/USD upside is possible.
The AUD/USD rose by 0.30% to 0.6810 in Thursday's session. The Aussie has been supported by rising commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which is Australia's largest export. However, a weak Q2 capex survey and continued weakness in non-mining business investment might weigh on the currency. Despite these headwinds, technicals suggest that further AUD/USD upside is possible.
Amidst the ambiguous Australian economic outlook and the central bank's firm stance against high inflation, financial markets anticipate a modest easing of interest rates by only 0.25% in 2024.
Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar gains despite weak investment data
- Business investment in Australia contracted for the second consecutive quarter in Q2, underscoring the challenges facing the domestic economy.
- Non-mining business spending recorded its first quarterly decline in three years, reflecting lower capex on building structures, plants and equipment.
- Weak capex survey adds to the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will likely cut interest rates by year-end as the central bank seeks to stimulate growth.
- On the positive side, monetary policy divergence might favor the AUD over its major counterparts.
AUD/USD technical outlook: Bullish momentum steady, buyers must secure 0.6800
Indicators are smiling on the pair. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing green bars, indicating that further gains are possible. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also backs this up as it remains deep in positive terrain with some room before the overbought threshold.
The pair is facing resistance at 0.6800 and 0.6830, while support can be expected at 0.6790 and 0.6770.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD consolidates near 19-month peak as traders await US PCE Price Index
AUD/USD oscillates in a range below the 0.6900 mark, as traders opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the US PCE Price Index. In the meantime, the RBA's hawkish stance, the optimism led by additional monetary stimulus from China, the prevalent risk-on mood, and a bearish USD continue to act as a tailwind for the pair.
EUR/USD rebounds on Thursday after midweek pullback
EUR/USD tuned back into the high end on Thursday, getting bolstered by a broad-market selloff in the Greenback. US data that printed better than expected helped to ease concerns of a possible economic slowdown within the US economy looming over the horizon.
Gold holding at higher ground at around $2,670
Gold breaks to new high of $2,673 on Thursday. Falling interest rates globally, intensifying geopolitical conflicts and heightened Fed easing bets are the main factors.
Ethereum investors show bullish bias amid ETF inflows and positive funding rates, exchange reserves pose risk
Ethereum traded around $2,640 on Thursday, up more than 2% following increased bullish bias among investors, as evidenced by ETH ETF net inflows and an uptrend in funding rates. However, investors may be wary of a potential correction from ETH's rising exchange reserve.
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
Five best Forex brokers in 2024
VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals.