- AUD/USD gains traction from risk-on sentiment and China's stimulus measures.
- Hawkish RBA stance and soft US inflation maintain upside potential for AUD/USD.
- Markets are still betting on a 50 bps cut by the Fed.
The AUD/USD gained traction on Friday, climbing by 0.20% to 0.6910. Optimism surrounding China's stimulus measures, including monetary easing by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), provided support to the Australian Dollar, boosting risk appetite among investors. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from the US from August came in soft, also prompting USD weakness.
On one hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn't plan on cutting rates while the Federal Reserve (Fed) has already started its easing cycle, which adds downward pressure to the pair.
Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar rises PCE data weights on the USD.
- The Australian Dollar appreciated against the US Dollar (USD) due to positive economic news from China and soft economic data from the US.
- The People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented stimulus measures, including a rate cut and lower reserve requirement ratio, boosting risk sentiment and supporting the AUD.
- The RBA reiterated its hawkish stance, implying that the bank will maintain high interest rates until inflation returns to the target range, supporting the AUD.
- US inflation, as measured by the headline PCE Price Index, increased by 2.2% YoY in August, slightly below expectations and suggesting a modest inflationary environment.
- The core PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.7%, in line with expectations and indicating a stable core inflation rate.
- Markets are betting on high odds of a 50 bps cut by the Fed in the November meeting and monetary policy divergence between the US central bank and the RBA, both supportive of the Aussie.
AUD/USD technical outlook: AUD/USD steady, hovering below 0.7000
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart are strong, with the former above 50 pointing upward and the latter printing rising green bars.
With bullish momentum mounting, it all points to the pair being set for more upside. The next target is seen at 0.7000.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD nears 1.1200 after US PCE inflation data
EUR/USD approaches 1.1200 following generally softer-than-anticipated US inflation-related figures. The pair lacks momentum amid tepid European data undermining demand for the Euro. Still, optimism weighs on the USD.
GBP/USD battles the 1.3400 level for a definitive bullish breakout
GBP/USD advances modestly beyond the 1.3400 level after US PCE inflation data showed price pressures continued to recede in August. Sterling Pound aims for fresh yearly highs beyond the 1.3433 peak posted earlier this week.
Gold hovers around $2,670 as US Dollar resumes decline
Gold price retains its bullish bias near fresh record highs, as demand for the US Dollar remains subdued following US PCE inflation figures. The strong momentum around stocks limits demand for the safe-haven metal.
Week ahead – NFP on tap amid bets of another bold Fed rate cut
Investors see decent chance of another 50bps cut in November. Fed speakers, ISM PMIs and NFP to shape rate cut bets. Eurozone CPI data awaited amid bets for more ECB cuts. China PMIs and BoJ Summary of Opinions also on tap.
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
Five best Forex brokers in 2024
VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals.