Australian Dollar softens despite weak USD, eyes on inflation data
- AUD/USD declined by 0.14% to 0.6495 in Monday's session.
- Selling pressure near the intraday high of 0.6550 drove the AUD/USD lower.
- Markets await key US and Australian inflation data later this week.
The AUD/USD declined by 0.14% to 0.6495 in Monday's session, driven by selling pressure near the intraday high of 0.6550. Despite the US Dollar's weakness, the Australian Dollar's performance suggests its own underlying weakness. There won’t be any highlights in any of the Australian or American economic calendars.
The AUD/USD pair exhibits a mixed outlook, influenced by the interplay of a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and mixed local economic data. The US Dollar's strength has weighed on AUD/USD, but the RBA's potential for future rate hikes may limit the downside.
Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar retreats on quiet Monday, eyes on inflation data
- The AUD/USD pair retreats from its intraday high of 0.6550, losing most of its gains amid weak performance by both the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar.
- The US Dollar Index corrects to 106.80, pulling back from Friday's two-year high of 108.00.
- Investors will watch the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index on Wednesday for clues on future Fed interest rate decisions.
- October’s core PCE inflation is expected to rise to 2.8%, up from 2.7% in September.
- Australia's CPI data for October, due Wednesday, is expected to show an increase to 2.3% from 2.1% in September.
- The CPI outcome could shape expectations for the RBA interest rate path in the coming months.
- The RBA is projected to keep its Official Cash Rate steady at 4.35% through year-end.
AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Pair faces resistance at 0.6540 with indicators showing mixed signals
The AUD/USD pair fell sharply after failing to break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6540, suggesting that the bulls are unable to stage a recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, indicating that the bears are in control. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is green, indicating that there is still some bullish momentum. Overall, the technical outlook is mixed, with the bears having the upper hand in the short term. If the AUD/USD pair breaks below the 0.6400 support level, it could fall further toward the 0.6300 level. On the other hand, if the pair can break above the 0.6540 resistance level, it could rally toward the 0.6600 level.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
Author
Patricio Martín
FXStreet
Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.
