- The Australian Dollar declines despite a risk-on sentiment following the dovish Fed Chair Powell.
- The downside of the AUD may be restrained due to the hawkish mood surrounding the RBA.
- The US Dollar loses ground due to rising expectations of a 25 basis points rate cut in September.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower, still hovering around a seven-month high of 0.6798 on Monday. However, the AUD/USD pair gained ground due to the rising risk-on sentiment following the dovish speech from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
The Aussie Dollar also received support from the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding its policy outlook. the recent RBA Minutes showed that the board members agreed that a rate cut is unlikely soon. Additionally, RBA Governor Michele Bullock expressed that the Australian central bank will not hesitate to raise rates again to combat inflation if needed.
The US Dollar (USD) depreciates due to rising odds of a rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated at the Jackson Hole Symposium "The time has come for policy to adjust." However, Powell did not specify when rate cuts would begin or their potential size.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar edges lower despite the hawkish RBA
- Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker stated on Friday that the US central bank's approach to interest rate adjustments needs to be "methodical," signaling that policymakers are planning a series of rate cuts throughout the remainder of 2024 as the US central bank prepares for a dovish shift, according to Bloomberg.
- Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted on Friday that the Fed has seen broad success in achieving its goals and that inflation should continue to head toward the US central bank's target range. Policy is now at its tightest point of the entire hike cycle. Everything we wanted to happen to get rates down, has happened, per Reuters.
- The US Composite PMI dipped slightly to 54.1 in August, a four-month low, down from 54.3 in July, yet remained above market expectations of 53.5. This suggests that US business activity continues to expand, marking 19 straight months of growth.
- Australia's Judo Bank Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 51.4 in August, up from 49.9 in July. This increase marks the fastest expansion in three months, driven by a stronger performance in the services sector, despite a more pronounced contraction in manufacturing production.
- FOMC Minutes for July’s policy meeting indicated that most Fed officials agreed last month that they would likely cut their benchmark interest rate at the upcoming meeting in September as long as inflation continued to cool.
- On Tuesday, the RBA Minutes suggested that the board members had considered a rate hike earlier this month before ultimately deciding that maintaining current rates would better balance the risks. Additionally, RBA members agreed that a rate cut is unlikely soon.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar rises to seven-month highs around 0.6800
The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6790 on Monday. Daily chart analysis shows the AUD/USD pair has returned to the ascending channel, suggesting reinforcing a bullish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches near the 70 mark, supporting the ongoing bullish momentum.
In terms of resistance, the AUD/USD pair tests the seven-month high of 0.6798. A break above this level could lead the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the 0.6910 level.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may find support around the lower boundary of the ascending channel at the 0.6770 level, followed by the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 0.6718 level. A break below the nine-day EMA could weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the throwback level at 0.6575, followed by another throwback level at 0.6470.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.11% | -0.24% | 0.00% | 0.27% | 0.13% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.31% | -0.04% | 0.14% | 0.08% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.11% | 0.00% | -0.40% | -0.10% | 0.12% | 0.02% | -0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.24% | 0.31% | 0.40% | 0.28% | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.26% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.10% | -0.28% | 0.26% | 0.16% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.27% | -0.14% | -0.12% | -0.60% | -0.26% | -0.04% | -0.25% | |
| NZD | -0.13% | -0.08% | -0.02% | -0.60% | -0.16% | 0.04% | -0.21% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.18% | -0.26% | 0.09% | 0.25% | 0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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