- The Australian Dollar depreciates as traders adopt caution ahead of the results of the US presidential election.
- The Aussie Dollar could regain momentum as RBA Governor Michele Bullock reaffirmed a hawkish stance on Tuesday.
- Georgia exit polls indicate that Trump holds a 10% lead over Harris, with estimates based on less than 1% of votes counted.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as market anticipation builds ahead of the US presidential election outcome. The AUD/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, driven by increased confidence in Trump trades following the favorable outcome for Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
Polling data indicate a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump currently holding an edge. On Kalshi, Trump shows a strong 57% to 43% lead over Harris, while on Polymarket, the gap is slightly wider, with Trump at 60.7% and Harris at 39.5%. These figures reflect growing support for Trump as election day approaches, but the race remains competitive.
Attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday, with markets broadly anticipating a 25 basis point cut. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 96.4% probability that the Fed will lower rates by a quarter percentage point at its November meeting, reflecting strong market consensus for a modest cut this week.
The Aussie Dollar strengthened after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% on Tuesday, marking its eighth consecutive pause. RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy given persistent inflation risks and a strong labor market.
Additionally, Australia’s latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data indicated a positive shift in private sector activity in October. Growth in the services sector helped offset a continued decline in manufacturing.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar depreciates amid market caution ahead of US election results
- Early exit poll results from Wisconsin indicate a lead for Republican candidate Donald Trump, with 56% of the vote compared to 42.5%, based on 7.5% of expected votes counted. In North Carolina, exit polls show a tight race between Trump and Kamala Harris, with 50% of the votes counted. In Michigan, with 12% of votes counted, Harris' lead has shrunk from 61% to 53%.
- Georgia, one of the early states with available exit polls, shows a tilt toward Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. With its 16 electoral votes, the initial data suggests Trump has roughly a 10% lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, although this estimate is based on less than 1% of the votes counted, as reported by The Washington Post. This early lead suggests momentum for Trump, but with only a small fraction of votes tallied, the final outcome in Georgia remains uncertain.
- Preliminary results from the Pennsylvania exit polls show a lead for Harris, according to CBC News. With approximately 8% of the expected votes counted, Kamala has secured a 71% majority. The state has 19 electoral votes at stake.
- The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index increased to 56.0 in October, up from 54.9 in September, exceeding the forecast of 53.8. In contrast, the S&P Global Services PMI registered at 55.0 in October, slightly below both the prior reading and the expected 55.3.
- Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI improved to 51.0 in October from 50.6 in the previous reading, above the market consensus of 50.6. The Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 in October versus 49.8 prior. Caixin China Services PMI also rose to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September.
- The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3% month-over-month in October, up from a 0.1% increase in the prior month, marking the highest reading since July and ahead of the RBA's November policy meeting. Annually, the gauge climbed by 3.0%, compared to the previous 2.6% reading.
- ANZ Australia Job Advertisements increased by 0.3% month-over-month in October, a notable slowdown from the upwardly revised 2.3% gain in September. Despite slower growth, this marks the second consecutive month of increases.
- China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday. China expressed hopes that Australia will continue enhancing its business environment and ensure fair and equitable treatment for Chinese companies.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar moves below 0.6600, nine-day EMA
The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6590 on Wednesday, with technical indicators on the daily chart suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish trend. The pair has slipped below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling downward momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, further supporting a bearish outlook for the pair.
For the AUD/USD pair, immediate support lies near the three-month low at 0.6536. A break below this level could lead the pair toward the critical psychological support at 0.6500.
On the upside, the pair could face resistance at the nine-day EMA at 0.6603, with additional resistance at the 14-day EMA at 0.6620. A breakout above these levels could signal strengthening momentum, potentially targeting the key psychological level of 0.6700.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.64% | 1.06% | 1.59% | 0.60% | 1.76% | 1.20% | 1.10% | |
| EUR | -1.64% | -0.56% | -0.08% | -1.02% | 0.11% | -0.44% | -0.53% | |
| GBP | -1.06% | 0.56% | 0.50% | -0.46% | 0.68% | 0.12% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -1.59% | 0.08% | -0.50% | -0.96% | 0.18% | -0.40% | -0.47% | |
| CAD | -0.60% | 1.02% | 0.46% | 0.96% | 1.15% | 0.59% | 0.50% | |
| AUD | -1.76% | -0.11% | -0.68% | -0.18% | -1.15% | -0.56% | -0.63% | |
| NZD | -1.20% | 0.44% | -0.12% | 0.40% | -0.59% | 0.56% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | -1.10% | 0.53% | -0.04% | 0.47% | -0.50% | 0.63% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD remains heavy on 1.0700 as US election exit polls point to a Trump win
EUR/USD sustains the sell-off on 1.0700, down nearly 1.50% so far, as the focus remains on the US Presidential election. With polls closed in most states, including critical battlegrounds, the Republican nominee Trump is seen leading, spurring a US Dollar upsurge.
USD/JPY holds sizeable gains near 154.00 on a potential Trump win
As initial results show former President Donald Trump may return to office, USD/JPY consolidates latest gains near 154.00 early Wednesday. The US Dollar recovers broadly, while stock markets are also on the run. The final outcome may change the picture.
Gold: $2,750 - a tough nut to crack, as focus stays on US election results
Gold price has paused its rebound from multi-day lows early Wednesday, as sellers return on a fresh bout of US Dollar buying, as the exit polls of the 2024 US presidential election show a lead for the Republican nominee Donald Trump in more than a dozen states, including most of the critical battleground states.
Bitcoin breaks all-time high of $73,777 as Trump takes the lead
Bitcoin breaks above its all-time high of $73,777 on Wednesday, buoyed by Donald Trump's poll lead. At the same time, Ethereum is nearing its key resistance level, with a strong close above it, potentially signaling upward momentum. Meanwhile, Ripple finds support around its daily level.
DOGE could hit a new yearly high after 50% rally in twenty days
Dogecoin is up 8% on Tuesday following rising expectations of a Donald Trump victory in the ongoing U.S. presidential elections. If the bullish momentum continues, the meme coin leader could rise to a new yearly high.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.