- The Australian Dollar trades firmer in Thursday’s Asian session.
- The firmer USD and a lack of further stimulus measures from China might cap the pair’s upside.
- The US CPI inflation data will be in the spotlight on Thursday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovers some lost ground, snapping the five-day losing streak on Thursday. However, the stronger US Dollar (USD) amid rising speculation of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November might undermine the Aussie in the near term. Furthermore, Beijing's attempt to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy disappointed investors as China’s top economic planning authority failed to announce additional measures to improve flagging growth. It’s worth noting that China is a major trading partner to Australia, and concerns about China's sluggish economy tend to have a negative impact on the AUD value.
Investors will closely monitor the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due later on Thursday. The headline US CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.3% YoY in September, while the core CPI inflation is estimated to show a rise of 3.2% YoY in the same report period. However, in case the report shows a softer-than-expected outcome, this could open the door for a jumbo Fed rate cut, which might weigh on the USD and cap the downside for AUD/USD.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar gains momentum ahead of US CPI data
- RBA Minutes from the September meeting showed board members overlooked the warning that there would be no rate cuts in the near future. The Australian central bank wants to keep its options open, watching whether the economy starts to pick up in the second half of the year.
- “This leaves the door open to a shift to neutral by the end of this year and then easing in early 2025. We continue to expect the first cash rate cut in February 2025,” noted ANZ analysts.
- The World Bank forecasted that China’s growth rate will slow to 4.3% in 2025, down from a projected 4.8% this year, in an economic update on Tuesday.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday one or two more rate cuts this year are likely if the economy evolves as she expects, adding that she is now "quite confident" inflation is headed toward the Fed's 2% target.
- Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday that with inflation trends growing weaker, it is very probable that the Fed can deliver more interest rate reductions.
- The markets have priced in nearly 80% odds of 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cuts in November, up from 31.1% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar remains vulnerable near the key support level in the longer term
The Australian Dollar trades stronger on the day. Technically, the bullish outlook of the AUD/USD pair looks vulnerable as the pair hovers around the lower limit of the ascending trend channel and the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. If AUD/USD crosses below the mentioned levels, this could resume its downside. The downward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) which is located below the midline near 41.20.
The crucial support level for AUD/USD emerges at 0.6700, representing the lower limit of the trend channel, the 100-day EMA and the psychological level. A breach of this level could pave the way to 0.6622, the low of September 11.
On the other hand, the high of September 6 at 0.6767 acts as an immediate resistance level of the pair. Further north, the next upside barrier is seen at 0.6823, the high of August 29, followed by 0.6942, the high of September 30.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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