Australian Dollar declines due to market caution as looming Fed interest rate decision

• The Australian Dollar receives downward pressure from concerns over glooming China’s economy.
• The Aussie Dollar’s downside could be restrained due to hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
• The US Dollar struggles due to rising odds of an aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Wednesday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) depreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday due to growing concerns over the health of China's economy. Analysts point out that the latest round of weak economic data indicates serious challenges for the world's second-largest economy. Since China is a key trading partner for Australia, fluctuations in China's economic health can have a significant effect on the Australian market.

Economists at Goldman Sachs and Citi have reduced their 2024 GDP growth forecasts for China to 4.7%, falling short of Beijing's target of around 5.0%. SocGen describes the situation as a "downward spiral," while Barclays calls it "from bad to worse" and a "vicious cycle." Morgan Stanley also cautions that "things could get worse before they get better," according to a Reuters report.

The AUD/USD pair’s downside may be limited, as the Australian Dollar remains supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance. Meanwhile, the US Dollar faces pressure amid increasing expectations of an aggressive 50 basis points Fed rate cut on Wednesday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 38.0% chance of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the September meeting, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has surged to 62.0%, up from 50.0% just a day earlier. This shift reflects heightened anticipation of more aggressive monetary easing.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar holds position ahead of Fed interest rate decision

• ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence climbed 1.8 points, reaching an eight-week high of 84.1. While ANZ notes that the rise was broad-based, confidence remains firmly in pessimistic territory.
• The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 69.0 in September, exceeding the market expectations of 68.0 reading and marking a four-month high. This increase reflects a gradual improvement in consumers' outlook on the US economy after months of declining economic expectations.
• China's economy weakened in August, with a continued slowdown in industrial activity and declining real estate prices, as Beijing faces growing pressure to increase spending to boost demand. According to Business Standard, this was reported by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday.
• China's Retail Sales grew by 2.1% year-on-year in August, slowing from 2.7% in the previous month and falling short of the market consensus of 2.5%.
• The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to 0.2% month-on-month in August, exceeding the forecasted 0.1% increase and the previous 0.0%. Meanwhile, core PPI accelerated to 0.3% MoM, against the expected 0.2% rise and July’s 0.2% decline.
• Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations eased to 4.4% in September, down slightly from August's four-month high of 4.5%. This decline highlights the central bank's efforts to balance bringing inflation down within a reasonable timeframe and maintaining gains in the labor market.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a hawkish stance, with RBA Governor Michele Bullock stating that it is premature to consider rate cuts due to persistently high inflation. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter also noted that while the labor market remains tight, wage growth appears to have peaked and is expected to slow further.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar rises to 0.6750; next barrier at seven-month highs

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6750 on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair has broken above the upper boundary of a descending channel, indicating a weakening of a bearish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly above the 50 level, suggesting a shift in momentum from a bearish to a bullish trend.

Regarding the upside, a breach above the descending channel has triggered a bullish bias for the AUD/USD pair. This could push the pair toward its seven-month high of 0.6798 and test the psychological level of 0.6800.

On the downside, the AUD/USD pair could find immediate support around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 0.6719 level, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel at 0.6690. A return to the descending channel would reinforce the bearish bias and lead the pair to navigate the region around the throwback support zone near 0.6575, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel at 0.6550 level.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart