Australian Dollar remains subdued ahead of the Australian Budget Release

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraces its recent gains on Tuesday ahead of the Yearly Budget Release by the Australian Government due to be published later in the day. Treasurer Jim Chalmers hinted at positive developments during Sunday morning television interviews, suggesting that the upcoming budget could show a faster decline in inflation than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had predicted, as reported by The Guardian.

The Australian Dollar received pressure following the RBA's less hawkish stance after opting to maintain its interest rate at 4.35% last week. Speculation had been rife in the markets that the central bank might lean toward a more hawkish position, spurred by recent inflation data surpassing expectations.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, gains ground due to cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, highlighting the necessity of maintaining higher rates for an extended period as inflation remains elevated. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed this sentiment on Monday, advocating for the retention of current interest rates until signs of inflation easing become more apparent.

On Tuesday, investors are expected to closely monitor the crucial economic indicator, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which could serve as a significant market catalyst. Traders may utilize the PPI report to gauge the potential outcome of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and if the data turns out to be higher than expected, it could further bolster the US Dollar.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar edges lower due to a dovish RBA

• National Australia Bank's Business Conditions fell to 7 in April, from the previous reading of 9. Meanwhile, National Australia Bank's Business Confidence stood at the reading of 1.
• Australia's Treasury announced on Sunday that they forecasted that inflation could re-enter the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range by the end of 2024. In their December outlook, officials predicted that CPI inflation would decrease to 3.75% by mid-2024 and 2.75% by mid-2025, aligning it with the RBA's target range.
• Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted a consumer sentiment survey, indicating that US consumers anticipate a broad acceleration in inflation over the next year, with expectations reaching 3.3%. This marks an increase from the 3.0% figure reported in March for consumer one-year inflation expectations.
• According to Reuters, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed), expressed caution regarding the level of restrictiveness in monetary policy. On Friday, Kashkari stated in an interview with CNBC that while the threshold for another rate hike is high, it cannot be entirely ruled out. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the necessity of maintaining a prolonged restrictive policy to attain the Federal Reserve's inflation objectives.
• On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 67.4 in May from April's 77.2, marking a six-month low and falling short of market expectations of 76 reading. Meanwhile, the UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation rose to 3.1%, a six-month high, up from 3.0% prior.
• The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has revised its forecasts for the Australian Dollar at the end of 2024 to 0.69, down from 0.71 previously. CBA cites factors such as the interest rate gap and elevated US Treasury bond yields, which are bolstering the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on high inflation and its reluctance to implement rate cuts further support the US Dollar, as reported on forexlive.com.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar maintains its position near the major level of 0.6600

The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6600 on Tuesday. The AUD/USD pair consolidates within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a bullish inclination as it remains above the 50 level.

Potential movements indicate that the AUD/USD pair may challenge the upper boundary near the swing area at 0.6650. A breakthrough above this level could lead to a retest of March's high at 0.6667, with further upward momentum possibly targeting the psychological threshold of 0.6700.

Conversely, immediate support is foreseen around the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6569. If the pair breaches below this EMA, it might face additional selling pressure, potentially descending towards the region around the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle, approximately at 0.6465.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

(This story was corrected on May 15 at 03:45 GMT to say, in the first paragraph of the technical analysis, that the Australian Dollar trades around 0.6600 on Tuesday, not on Monday.)