Australian Dollar soft with employment data in focus


  • AUD/USD continues its decline, nearing August lows.
  • US headline inflation accelerated to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September, while core CPI grew by 3.3%.
  •  Australia's October employment data is expected to show a modest increase in jobs added.


The AUD/USD declined by 0.69% to 0.6490 in Wednesday's session. AUD/USD hovers slightly below 0.6500 after the US inflation data for October. The US headline inflation and core CPI showed no surprises, while focus now shifts to Australia's October employment data is expected to show a modest increase in jobs added. 

The Australian dollar has declined due to the strength of the US dollar, supported by positive economic indicators and increased confidence. Australia's central bank maintains a neutral stance, signaling a potential rate cut in mid-2025, providing support for the Aussie. 

Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar down ahead employment data, US CPI

  • The US headline inflation accelerated to 2.6% in October, while the core CPI grew by 3.3%.
  • The inflation report didn’t shake the expectations among investors which continue to bet on another cut in December.
  • On the other hand, the RBA is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this year despite rising inflationary pressures.
  • Markets do not anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA until May 2025.
  • Datawise, the Australian economy is projected to have added 25,000 new jobs in October, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.
  • Australian data might shake up the expectations on the timetable of the RBA’s easing cycle.


AUD/USD technical outlook:  Pair approaches lows since August, oversold signals loom


The AUD/USD pair has extended its decline below the 0.6500 level, reaching its lowest point since August. This move is supported by technical indicators, which remain deeply in negative territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 30, indicating oversold conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is below zero, suggesting bearish momentum. These signals suggest that the downtrend may continue in the near term.

 

Employment FAQs

Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.

The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.

The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

Australian Dollar extends gains despite  mixed PMI

Australian Dollar extends gains despite mixed PMI

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of mixed Judo Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Australia on Friday. The AUD also benefits from a hawkish outlook by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding future interest rate decisions. 

AUD/USD News
Japanese Yen fails to build on stronger CPI-led intraday uptick against USD

Japanese Yen fails to build on stronger CPI-led intraday uptick against USD

The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracted some follow-through buying for the second successive day following the release of slightly higher-than-expected consumer inflation figures from Japan. This comes on top of Thursday's hawkish remarks from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, which keeps expectations for a December interest rate hike in play.

USD/JPY News
Gold price advances to near two-week top on geopolitical risks

Gold price advances to near two-week top on geopolitical risks

Gold price touched nearly a two-week high during the Asian session as the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict benefited traditional safe-haven assets. The weekly uptrend seems unaffected by bets for less aggressive Fed policy easing, sustained USD buying and the prevalent risk-on environment

Gold News
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH open interest surge to all-time high after recent price rally

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH open interest surge to all-time high after recent price rally

Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $3,350, experiencing an 10% increase on Thursday. This price surge is attributed to strong bullish sentiment among derivatives traders, driving its open interest above $20 billion for the first time. 

Read more
A new horizon: The economic outlook in a new leadership and policy era

A new horizon: The economic outlook in a new leadership and policy era

The economic aftershocks of the COVID pandemic, which have dominated the economic landscape over the past few years, are steadily dissipating. These pandemic-induced economic effects are set to be largely supplanted by economic policy changes that are on the horizon in the United States.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures