- Australian Dollar pulls back from weekly highs ahead of the US Core PPI.
- Australia’s RBA is expected to increase interest rates; contributing support for the Aussie Dollar.
- The slew of dovish remarks by Fed officials contribute to pressure on the US Dollar.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) halts the five-day winning streak that began last week on a downbeat US Dollar (USD). The AUD/USD pair is strengthening as the likelihood of another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increases. This trend can be linked to growing inflation expectations fueled by higher oil prices.
Australia might witness robust underlying commodity prices owing to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Additionally, Westpac Consumer Confidence data for October indicates an improvement in individual confidence during the same period.
Australia's business conditions showed resilience in September despite a deceleration in inflation. Moreover, Consumer Sentiment rebounded in October with unchanged rates, but the overall sentiment remained overshadowed by the rising cost of living.
Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), addressed the Bloomberg gathering in Sydney on Wednesday. Kent highlighted the chance to observe the economy's response to previous interest rate hikes. There are currently no intentions to accelerate the rate of bond holdings. In the event of bond sales, the approach would be careful to avoid market disturbances.
Kent also noted instances of rapid wage growth in specific sectors, although the overall impact remains contained. While acknowledging the significance of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, Kent emphasized that it is not the sole factor influencing policy considerations.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to halt the losing streak that began last week. The US Dollar (USD) faced challenges due to the downbeat US Treasury yields on Wednesday.
Furthermore, a series of dovish-leaning comments from Fed policymakers have resonated in the markets, with many expressing worries that elevated long-term US bond yields might hinder their inclination to raise rates in the upcoming meetings.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar snaps the wining streak ahead of US data releases
- Australia experienced a rebound in inflation in August, primarily attributed to higher oil prices. This development increases the likelihood of another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
- The escalation of the Middle East conflict could prompt the RBA to implement a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike, bringing it to 4.35% by the end of the year.
- The heightened geopolitical tension is contributing to increased demand for commodities like energy and gold, positively influencing the performance of the AUD/USD pair.
- Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence showed that current buying conditions improved in October. The index rose 2.9% from the previous 1.5% decline in September.
- After engaging in discussions with US Senators on Tuesday, China's Commerce Minister, Wang Wentao, expressed that "both sides had rational and pragmatic discussions." Emphasizing the significance of the US-China economic and trade relationship.
- The US Nonfarm Payroll report for September revealed a notable increase of 336,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 170,000. The revised figure for August stood at 227,000.
- US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) remained steady at 0.2% in September, falling short of the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, the report indicated a rise of 4.2%, below the anticipated consistent figure of 4.3%.
- The yields on US Treasury bonds declined on Wednesday, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield marked lower at 4.54%, down by 2.08% at the time of writing.
- Atlanta's Fed President Raphael Bostic went on record stating that the current monetary policy is already restrictive, rendering additional rate hikes unnecessary, following the dovish trajectory established by two fellow Fed colleagues on Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari echoed a similar sentiment on Tuesday.
- Investors will closely watch economic data, particularly focusing on inflation figures. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled for Wednesday, followed by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday along with Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar pulls back, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement acts as a barrier
The Australian Dollar hovers below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6429 at the time of writing on Wednesday, presenting a noteworthy barrier. A decisive breakthrough above this level could open the door for further upward exploration, targeting the psychological level of 0.6450. Beyond that, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6456 emerges as a potential resistance, following the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6518. On the downside, a pivotal support level is identified at 0.6400, following the monthly low at 0.6342. These levels play a crucial role in indicating potential shifts in the trajectory of the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | -0.03% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.14% | 0.04% | 0.30% | -0.21% | |
EUR | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.19% | 0.07% | 0.32% | -0.19% | |
GBP | -0.08% | -0.12% | 0.01% | 0.06% | -0.04% | 0.24% | -0.29% | |
CAD | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.01% | 0.04% | -0.05% | 0.20% | -0.31% | |
AUD | -0.14% | -0.16% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.09% | 0.15% | -0.37% | |
JPY | -0.03% | -0.06% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.28% | -0.25% | |
NZD | -0.30% | -0.33% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.15% | -0.27% | -0.53% | |
CHF | 0.20% | 0.18% | 0.27% | 0.30% | 0.34% | 0.25% | 0.50% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Economic Indicator
United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Economic Indicator
United States FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Read more.Why it matters to traders
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD fluctuates around 1.0900 as markets await US election exit polls
EUR/USD trades sideways near 1.0900 on Tuesday. The US Dollar ignores the upbeat ISM Services PMI data for October and stays under modest selling pressure as investors await exit polls to see who is closer to winning the US presidential election.
GBP/USD clings to modest gains near 1.3000, awaits US election result
GBP/USD trades marginally higher on the day at around 1.3000 after finding support near 1.2950 on a broadly subdued US Dollar. Traders eagerly await the outcome of the US presidential election, refraining from placing fresh bets on the major.
Gold holds steady below $2,750 amid US election jitters
Gold attracts dip-buyers after touching a one-week low on Tuesday but remains below $2,750. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in positive territory above 4.3% as markets eye US election exit polls, limiting XAU/USD's upside.
Crypto markets brace for volatility in tight race between Trump and Harris
The US presidential election is one of the most significant events in the world. Due to the influence of the country’s political decisions, policies, and economic approaches, it can significantly impact crypto and global markets.
US election day – A traders’ guide
Election day volatility: Brace for potential wild market swings. Election days bring opportunities, but also risks. Unclear results can increase volatility further.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.