Australia: Unemployment rate likely to remain at 5.6% - Westpac

In Sep, analysts at Westpac are looking for a flat participation rate of 65.3% which will generate a 30.5k gain in the Australian labour force which, with rounding, will leave the unemployment rate at 5.6%.

Key Quotes

“Despite the strong gain in employment, the Aug release printed a flat unemployment rate of 5.6% (5.60% at two decimal places) due to a 0.2ppt gain in the participation rate driving a solid rise the labour force.”

“In Aug, the gain in participation came from a lift in both male and female participation but the gains from females have been somewhat greater and females do appear to be on a more solid uptrend. Males, by contrast, look more like they have found some stability in participation. By state, the strongest gains in female participation were in Qld but they are also improving in NSW while Vic continues to hold a very high level of female participation.”