Australia: Soft core inflation in 2Q24 a relief for RBA – UOB Group

Australian consumer price inflation rose in 2Q24, but core inflation surprised on the downside, UOB Group economist Lee Sue Ann notes.

Housing and food costs climb up

“Australian consumer price inflation rose in 2Q24 as housing and food costs climbed, but core inflation surprised on the downside. A closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, rose 0.8% q/q, following a 1.0% increase in 1Q24. The annual pace slowed to 3.9% from 4.0%, the lowest since early 2022.”

“The latest inflation figures are certainly a relief for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Recall that at the last monetary policy meeting on 18 Jun, the RBA had warned there were still reasons to be vigilant against inflation risks.”

“We had long held to the view that the central bank will likely be on hold for longer, rather than a near-term hike. Today’s data certainly reinforces our base case. All eyes will now turn to the RBA’s meeting on 6 Aug, where the central bank will also be publishing updated economic forecasts alongside the decision.”