- AUD/USD consolidates around 0.6250 after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.1%, as expected.
- The RBA lacks confidence whether inflation is on track towards their 2%-3% range.
- Reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump are expected to weigh on China’s economic outlook.
The AUD/USD pair turns sideways around 0.6250 in Tuesday’s European session. The Aussie pair flattens after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s monetary policy meeting in which it left the key Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.1%, as expected, and didn’t provide meaningful guidance on the interest rate outlook.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock said during the press conference that the board did not discuss a rate cut and did not make up its mind on a May move as they are still not 100% confident that inflation is moving towards their 2%-3% range.
Going forward, the major threat for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the release of a detailed reciprocal tariff plan by United States (US) President Donald Trump, which he will unveil on Wednesday. Investors expect Trump to announce the highest tariff measures on China for having the largest trade surplus against the US among all its trading allies.
Such a scenario will make Chinese products less competitive in the global market. This will also have a significant impact on the Aussie Dollar, given that the Australian economy relies heavily on its exports to China.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades sideways as investors have been sidelined, waiting for the release of the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. According to the Washington Post, the White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports to the US.
Additionally, investors also await the US JOLTS Job Opening data for February and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for March, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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