AUD/USD: To retest the 0.6440 support before a more sustained rebound – UOB Group

Room for the Australian Dollar (AUD) to retest the 0.6440 support before a more sustained rebound can be expected. In the longer run, AUD is expected to consolidate between 0.6440 and 0.6550 for the time being, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

AUD is expected to consolidate between 0.6440 and 0.6550

24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for AUD to trade in a range between 0.6485/0.6530 was incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, AUD fell to a low of 0.6443 and then rebounded to close at 0.6476, down by 0.66% for the day. Despite the relatively sharp drop, there has been no significant increase in momentum. That said, there is room for AUD to retest the 0.6440 support before a more sustained rebound can be expected. A clear break below 0.6440 seems unlikely for now. Resistance is at 0.6495; a break of 0.6510 would indicate that the current downward pressure has faded.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (28 Nov, spot at 0.6495), we highlighted that ‘the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase.’ We expected AUD to ‘consolidate between 0.6440 and 0.6550 for the time being.’ While AUD dropped and approached the bottom of our expected range yesterday (low has been 0.6443), there has been no significant increase in momentum. In other words, we continue to hold the same view for now. Looking ahead, for a sustained decline, AUD must break and hold below 0.6425.”