Oversold decline in Australian Dollar (AUD) could extend to 0.6560 before stabilisation can be expected. In the longer run, potential for AUD to continue to decline to 0.6560, possibly 0.6520, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
AUD can slide towards 0.6520
24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected AUD to ‘decline further’ yesterday. We pointed out that ‘the significant support level at 0.6585 might not be easy to break.’ However, AUD broke below 0.6585, reaching a low of 0.6580. AUD closed on a soft note at 0.6583 (-0.33%). While oversold, the decline could extend to 0.6560 before stabilisation can be expected. A sustained break below 0.6560 is unlikely today. Resistance is at 0.6600; a breach of 0.6615 would mean that the weakness has stabilised.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (24 Oct, spot at 0.6635), we highlighted that AUD ‘is expected to continue to decline, and the level to watch is a significant support at 0.6585.’ Yesterday (Monday), AUD broke below 0.6585 (low has been 0.6580). While oversold, the weakness is not showing signs of stabilisation just yet. Only a breach of 0.6640 (‘strong resistance’ previously at 0.6670) would mean that the weakness that started early this month (as annotated in the chart below) has stabilised. Until then, there is potential for AUD to continue to decline to 0.6560, possibly 0.6525.”
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