- AUD/USD continues to cycle around the 0.6600 handle.
- Aussie CPI print for Q4 2023 expected to show further inflation easing.
- US Fed rate call, NFP labor figures to weigh down the rest of the trading week.
AUD/USD cycled in a familiar pattern around the 0.6600 price point on Tuesday as Antipodeans gear up for a fresh print of Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures with the next rate call from the US Federal Reserve (Fed0 in the barrel for Wednesday and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures slated for Friday.
Australia’s QoQ CPI is expected to ease back to 0.8% from the previous quarter’s 1.2%, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Trimmed Mean CPI for the annualized fourth quarter is likewise forecast to clip down from 5.2% to 4.3%.
Australia Monthly CPI Preview: Inflation expected to ease further
The heavy-hitters this week revolve around a one-two punch of another Fed rate call and Friday’s US NFP labor print. The Fed is broadly expected to keep rates on hold this week, but cut-hungry investors are having a hard time letting go of bets for a March rate cut, with 44% of the rate swap market still hoping for a rate cut by March according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
This week’s US NFP print is expected to show a slight cooling in US labor markets, with the NFP forecast to come in at 180K in January compared to December’s 216K. Markets have routinely undershot NFP forecasts recently, and a topside upset could see investors suffering a rate tantrum as a stubbornly-healthy US labor market reduces chances of rate cuts happening sooner rather than later.
AUD/USD technical outlook
AUD/USD continues to get hung up on the 0.6600 handle, with intraday price action cycling the major price level with near-term momentum getting propped up by a bullish tilt in the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising into 0.6590.
Daily candlesticks remain underpinned by the 200-day SMA at 0.6570, and the AUD/USD is caught in a dense congestion zone between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs as the pair consolidates into the midrange.
AUD/USD Hourly chart
AUD/USD Daily chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retreats from tops post-US PCE, back near 1.0540
The bearish sentiment in the US Dollar remains in place and supports EUR/USD's constructive outlook, keeping it in the 1.0540 region after the release of US inflation data, as measured by the PCE, on Wednesday.
GBP/USD recedes to 1.2640 on US PCE data
GBP/USD remains positively oriented in the 1.2640 zone as the Greenback experiences a marked pullback following the PCE inflation release.
Gold remains sidelined near $2,640 following US inflation prints
Gold remains on the positive foot near $2,640 per troy ounce, as US inflation data matched initial estimates in October, while US yields display a negative performance across the curve.
The clock is ticking for France
A French political problem is turning into a problem for financial markets. The budget deficit in France is 6% of GDP, if the planned reforms are not enacted, then the deficit could rise to 7% of GDP next year. This is the level when bond vigilantes start to sniff around.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.